Several members of our Dow Trader service have asked us to set up this blog to share thoughts on our favorite market of choice - the Dow Jones Index which we trade daily using the Dow Mini.
Members know through witnessing themselves the consistent success of our trading system, with a full set of recorded trading results - every single trade, both winners and losers - published since Jan 2006 on our home page.
In this blog, we want to share member thoughts, our updates, bulletins, bits and pieces of info we feel our members [and potential members] will benefit from.
As you know, core to our trading system is our unique Inter Market Strength [IMS] Indicator, a powerful minute by minute analysis of the Top 30 Stocks which make up the Dow - the inter-relationship between the internal 'trend' dynamics of these stocks, ultimately provide one, all powerful, unique measure/indicator, which we call the IMS. Look at the results - the power/profitability of this method is self-evident. Through this blog, we hope to share a multitude of experiences.
Members are invited to participate in this blog. It allows you to view the very latest in our own trading, developments, ideas, etc., and provides a means to post your own comments/suggestions...
750 comments:
«Oldest ‹Older 601 – 750 of 750DT, The backtesting stats for the XWAVE system using your exhaustion analysis is incredible! WOW, I can't wait to trade it~!
-- 100% accuracy on the Longs with an average gain of 212 pts!
Amazing...
Corey H.
Very good research DT.....your system is excellent. If u would allow me to share with u my entry/exit method for use in tandem with ur indicator, I'd luv to. It generates THE EXACT signals DT does with far better entry/exits on most trades. If u're interested, I can send u this years charts with results and show u what I mean. A good example would be the previous trade, where DT exited at a sizable loss, where I pulled a small gain of 40 points and reversed into its current long. I use DT as a barometer of market strength and combine the two with excellent results.....even backtested against different market conditions and volatility and it's still solid. Lemme know if u're interested...if not, either way, great system and good luck to all! =)
Dear DT,
Do members need to do anything to receive intraday email alerts?
Thanks DT and looking forward to your wonderful service.
Allan from Singapore
Hello, HAve been trading live for 3 mths now and learning to trust te IMS. Thanks for such a simple system the even outright beginners can follow.Your new exhaustion signal would bethe final fit in thesystem and I woul love to be part of it. Keep up the good work.
Kenny H. (OZ)
Dear DT
How will you decide who gets the intra day alerts? Please can you put me on the list!
Thanks.
Antony
Dear DT,
On the exhaustion analysis:Are the signals up to date? Your site shows trade#43. Actually you would have done trade#44 on Aug. 28 and probably would still be short as the 2.5% stop would have not yet been triggered. Correct?
Also, will the exhaustion analysis not be on the daily update with or by the Xwave results? Or can we receive it only on e-mail? I have an office and home e-mail address. Can I receive it both places? It would be nice to have it on the daily X wave page and when "go short or long" is triggered, the time of the signal could be posted. Maybe you do not want it for all to see. I, for one, am willing to pay a monthly or yearly fee as I am sure all would be willing to do.Thank you for your work on the IMS and the really neat exhaustion analysis!
Howard
Dear DT
Joined you in January 07. I think the xWave Stratergy gives excellent results as a stand-a-lone system. The addition of the exhaustion analysis is incredible. the results are awesome. Your efforts are truly appreciated.
Please put me on the list for the intra day alerts.
Many thanks again
Tony (uk)
Just to add my voice DT - way to go! This is all VERY exciting news!
I guess the main concern on everybody's mind now is who will be the privileged ones to be invited to get the intraday alerts?
Michael
DT,
How can we make it to the email list? You mentioned it will be by invitation only. Can I be invited please?
Thanks,
A. Sorial
Hi DT
I am subscribed since about a year and recommended your service to all my friends before the cutoff point. I am actually trading using your IMS as my only indicator, I threw out everything else. What an exiting improvement your exhaustion analysis is. Please allow me to be part of the email updates. Thanks
Peter P. on Maui
DT - As a member will the e-mail alerts just start when you begin them, or is there something we need to do? I am very excited about the system with the exhaustion signal and the slightly altered rules. It's quite an increase in overall points as well as less drawdown. Thanks for everything you are doing!
When is the new stuff going to start? is it open to all members? will it be just email or featured n the site?
Cant wait to start keeping all the points we loose at the moment.
thanks
Richard Cree
I was very skeptical when I first started using these signals -- even thought the numbers were being cooked. Well I was wrong. This is an excellent system with even greater potential with the new exhaustion indicator and email intraday alerts. I hope I get invited to participate in the next generation of this great service. Congratulations DT!! Good luck with the new site as wel!! //Tekel
DT..I love your system it has given a novice trader like me the confidence to trade the market with confidence,and would I as many others would love to be included in your new intraday alerts, but I can't understand why the new service is only going to be limited to a certain few?, why not include all your subscription members who have shown faith in you over the past. best wishes and live long and prosper...Andy (uk)
IMS still not fixed!
Where is the DT technical team??
Can we have some sort of reply from them?
RE: Sept 4th Data...
Our apologies for the missing information on Sept 4th. Thankfully, there were no errors in the logs [ie., IMS "Stay Long" call is still 100% correct and true] - only the data was not updated/published due to a data-source migration.
Just to recap with reference to the xWave - On 28th August we had a 'Go Short' signal as the IMS was above 65 and started dropping. This was stopped out at 1% [end of day] into a 'Go Long' signal on 29th August at 13289 [end of day].
Once we are 'Long' we 'Stay Long' [which we are] until either the IMS rises afresh to over 65 and starts dropping [which has not yet happened], or we hit an end of day stop which is 1% below 13289 [which has not yet happened].
So we are long, and ALL SIGNALS ARE CORRECT, in accordance with xWave rules/logic.
Once again, our apologies - these incidents can occur once in a while. We will always do our best to resolve any missing data as quickly as possible. With best regards - DT
DT Update Re: dowTrader & clickCharts...
Just to keep you posted - we have not made any firm decisions towards a specific day of release for DT-intraday at this moment. It is likely this will be launched within a few days.
While our end-of-day xWave service will remain free to our members, our intraday/real-time IMS alerts require extensive analysis/data-checking and manual signal confirmation. This may therefore attract a small monthly fee [if at all implemented, this will include a cancel anytime policy]. No firm decision has been made as yet.
Regarding member-quota's, as you will appreciate, it is important for us to set a strict limit on the number of members in order to maintain system integrity and a reasonably satisfactory level of member support. Whether the service will remain free, or attract a fee, any subscription info/procedure will be posted on this blog and also emailed to our select clients.
Readers will also be pleased to note, we have been active with important additions to our free, continually evolving, stock-charting site www.clickcharts.com. A great deal of valuable learning and thinking [inc the partial development of the dowTrader/exhaustion analysis tool] comes from these developments through insight into the building blocks of productive, technically-based trading indicators & tools.
We plan to launch these extras within clickcharts tonight or [at the latest] by tomorrow morning, subject to final intraday-data tests. You will now not only find intraday prices/charts, but also stock 'ratings' for all US listed stocks, plus our 'top performers' table, listing the strongest performing stock picks likely to continue rallying. This powerful screen provides recently signaled [Rated 10, 9 or 8] stocks already on their way UP - hidden gems that provide high momentum stock plays which we use to find opportunities for buying into pullbacks with a protective stop loss.
The newly updated 'Hot Scans' screen will provide a daily list of stocks with technical-ratings between '0/10' [strongly bearish] to '10/10' [strongly bullish] - users can adjust the parameters to suit [sort order, volume, price etc]. Interestingly, the current stock at the top of the pile is Sirius Satellite Radio which we are looking at today.
Updates to clickCharts will go live within a few hours - www.clickcharts.com
Will keep you posted with all key developments as they happen...
Best regards - DT
I particularly like change to short rules, and that you took the time to check out user suggestion...Can I be included in the email alerts list?
Thank you for a great service.
Rich
Thanks for your continuing efforts to refine and improve your system. Could you please explain more about what factors are incorporated into your exhaustion ayalysis, and also whether or not exhaustion anaylysis will be integrated into the regular Dow Trader recommendations. If so, you might consider a two-tier structure for any pricing you may implement. The enhanced Dow Trader could be priced at one level, while the extra service of real-time notification could be priced higher. Thanks for listening to your users.
Please include me on the email list for the intraday updates. I'll pay whatever because I know this system works.
abweeks@hotmail.com
DT, count me in for the alerts at whatever monthly fee you decide. Also I wanted to say thank you for the tweaking to the IMS with your exhaustion analysis tool. Can't wait to use it. Do you think this is something than can be implemented before the last quarter of the year approaches? Please advise. caesar@cinves.com
hi all,
I've been tradeing this system for a while now and without any shadow of a doubt is the easiest method of tradeing and most profitable(if you can restrain from fiddleing /meddleing and interfearing with the run of play) unlike myself who, like many others cant help but second guess what is going to happen and poke our fingers in where it is not needed lol.
I always trade the number as it comes out(uk about 3.00pmish)and providing there is a good 4-5 point difference from the previous number more often than not the signal is the same at the end of the day.
Iknow tradeing live is different to back testing but looking back over the last few weeks on my charts if you had followed the signal as soon as it appears(3pm) and place 3 trades(in the dirrection of the signal) with 3 limit orders of 25 points,50 points and 75points its surprising how many of those limits are hit during that day, so the following day just do the same, 3 trades following the signal with 3 limits and so on the following day.
If the 75point limit isnt hit leave it on and it generally gets hit the following day. 150 points a day isnt too bad.
If DT has the time to back test this further than the last 3 weeks or so (my charts dont go back very far)or anyone else with an hour or so spare i and many others would very much appreciate your time spent. It may well prove to be a non runner but the easiest systems ones are normally the best as we know from the ims lol.
best wishes and
heres hoping ya list extends out here in the sticks.
Andy
Dear DT,
Please include me as one of your invites to the IMS realtime signal alerts.
And the suggestion from Elite sounded interesting. Please allow him to share his view, if there is no conflict of interest.
Great system DT and A Big Thank You to your effort.
p23allan@yahoo.com.sg
clickCHarts.com V2 now LIVE...
It's been one of those long nights in the trenches - but we are now LIVE with the new updated www.clickcharts.com - check it out & explore at will. It's all 100% free for life...
Note the new 'ratings' system implemented for all stocks, also the updated HotScans screen and 'Top Performers' page. Sirius Satellite still looks top dog - for several days now.
If you like what we do, discuss it on the forums, chat boards [there are dozens of them - just do a Google search]. Express your opinion, let everyone you know, know about our service - we aim to keep it free FOR LIFE - so the more users we have the better/more investment we can expend into making CC/DT forever evolving.
Best regards - DT
Hi Andy, where do you put a stop? are all 3 stops the same?
cheers
Richard Cree
Hi all,
did anyone else notice the IMS throughout the 5/9/07 was in the low 20's and was posted at finish at 21.7? Now it is posted as 58.9. I know DT reported a glitch on the 4/9/07, as the data was missing but nothing mentioned about the 5/9/07 glitch.
Unfortunately I reacted to the 21.7 posting and closed my trade at a loss.
DT can you confur and explain?
kind regards.
Hi Fellow DT members,
A little while ago I posted an update on how well the IMS provides a divergence signal. I've not done any major backtesting due to the IMS signal only having 3mths or so on the chart that we all see.
However I noticed again on the 4th Sept that a bearish divergance had setup and bugger me dead the DOW has gone south again. That is three correct divergence signals in a row. To me it looks like the IMS does give very solid divergence signals. DT have you backtested this setup at all. I know it's not a very regular signal but it does appear to be a very probable signal that if seen tends to equate to a fairly strong move.
Thanks again the the IMS and keep up the excellent work.
Cheers,
hi richard,
i tend to put my stops about 1% away from where i get in so each trade is slightly different as the market moves about a bit while you try and get ya trades on(spreadbetting companies do like to hinder you a bit lol). this doesnt always work like all systems take today it lost 100 points in the first hour and a half so you would be panicking straight out the gate if you sat and watched it after putting on ya trades but if you trade small it makes life slightly less stressful.
try a bit of back testing if you have a chart package to look at see how it unfolds.
happy testing
best wishes
Andy
Dear Dowtraders,
I've observed an indicater that can save you a ton of money. The Volatility Index (VIX), which can be found at Yahoo Finance, will give you crucial information on how you should trade. If the VIX is above 20 and especially if it is near 25, the volatility is very high. Which also means DAILY VOLATILITY!!! Meaning, if the market is up one day during a high VIX you can bet your brother's house it will be diving the very next day. This has been especially true during these last tumoltuous weeks.
So, if the IMS is rising and we are in a LONG trend, place your long order in the last minutes of the futures session of a down day. Do just the opposite when the IMS is falling.
Stay out of the market on the other days. Or bet opposite in any big moves when the VIX is high. Hope this helps.
Best Regards,
Ron
Fellow members,
We have received some feedback regarding the xWave vs. dowTrader RealTime...
It appears some members are confused here, comparing the xWave signals to the RealTime signals, which naturally vary.
It is important to clarify to these individuals, that both systems are completely unique in their approach, but rely on the very same IMS indicator.
While one is an end of day entry/exit approach [xWave], the other improves these calls dramatically by providing intraday [Real Time] calls which is possible through application of exhaustion analysis.
As mentioned in an earlier blog, the xWave [end-of-day] has a drawback in that - while waiting for signal confirmation right up to the end of the day, profits can [and often are] given back to the market [whiplash effect].
It is this drawback we have focused on, and worked on towards provided a solution, by way of the exhaustion analysis tool, and Real Time calls. This has been explained throughout this latter part of this blog.
We endeavour to research and continue to find solutions where they is necessary, and share this knowledge.
Hope this provides some clarity - DT
To Ron
Is this VIX specific to the DOW or is it for the market in general? I've had a look at Yahoo finance but can't seem to find it on the DOW chart. Can you let me know where to find it exactly?
Thanks a lot!
Michael
Dear DT,
First of all, thank you for responding to our queries and for your continuing efforts at improving the system.
While I understand the basic difference between end-of-day and real-time recommendations, I'm afraid I'm still uncertain as to whether exhaustion analysis couldn't be used to enhance both. I'm sure part of that confusion comes from a lack of knowledge about what parameters go into exhaustion analysis. Another part comes from the fact that XWave has periodic intraday updates, some of which have resulted in at least one instance of multiple intraday Go Long and Go Short signal changes during a particularly wild and crazy trading day.
Perhaps exhaustion analysis, because of its nature, can only be applied to real-time and not to periodic intraday updates, but if it were possible to enhance XWave with exhaustion analysis, you would have multiple levels of service and corresponding price points, from free to full service. A refined XWave with several intraday updates, while still having a lag factor, would be more valuable than an end-of-day recommendation, though less valuable (and less service intensive) than e-mail notification.
If the problem with applying exhaustion analysis to XWave is that exhaustion analysis has to ignore the 1% rule (please forgive my pure speculation), then perhaps it would still be possible to introduce a mid-level service that takes advantage of periodic intraday updates and uses a modification of XWave rules, evolving a new system, much as XWave itself evolved. XWave-EA would still be much less service intensive than maintaining individual notification logs and could be priced accordingly, sort of like a Toyota with navigation system, as a step along the way to a Lexus.
Thanks, DT, for your patience, and for all the late nights.
Dear DT,
Thanks for this wonderful indicator and great research on the new dow-trader Real Time. The IMS has been really helpful in my trading.
Please include me as one of your invites to the IMS realtime signal alerts. Also, if you play to go to a pay service for dow trader sign me up.
bmont60@yahoo.com
Thanks
Brett
Dowtrader.. am very interested in your intraday alerts system as this has been something I, as well as many others, have wondered about while trading.You say this will be by invite only. Any criteria to be invited or is it random? David M
Hi DT,
Well-done for the great improvement. Please do include me in the e-mail alert for the RealTime.
awogunabiodun@yahoo.com
Cheers,
Dow Trader
Would you please include me in your intra day email service?
Thank you
Roger@fullcirclefertilizer.com
Many thanks for a great service. Please add me to your list of intraday clients when it is available. Just a comment: the usual end-of-day signals are fine by email, but could we have the intraday notification if a reverse direction trade is necessary, by SMS text message to a mobile phone, as we can't all receive emails to phones?
DT: I have been using your service for some time with great results. Usually I trade options on the DJX or QQQQ depending on the relative strenght and volatility. I would like to be included on your list for the new Intra day service.
Thanks, Albiz
DT,
How can we make it to the email list?
Is it by by invitation only. If so kindly invite me please?
Also where can I see Demo for xWave,
Thanks,
shuklask37@hotmail.com
Hi Ron!
That's great you share so crucial info with others - it's nice to be here among blokes like you.
However I couldn't find the Volatility Index at Yahoo Finance, even with their browser...?
I'd be graceful to give me/others the way to that
Regards, Mariusz
Hi DT!
I am nothing short of astonished of what you have done here. I've been following this site very closely for months now and would be very happy to join you for the ride on the new Intraday Realtime testing:
oferwo@gmail.com
thanks.
Hello (UK)Andy,
Now that the real-time IMS is in
operation, do you need any down stops at all?
Presumably we will be alerted before serious losses occur.
Hats off to DT for his (their)
ground breaking work.
Cheerio
Gerald (Canada)
DT
I apologize for sending the e-mail a few days ago asking why we went long on 9/11/07. I forgot about the 1% rule.
I am anxiously awaiting the e-mail updates on the exhaustion. I have some ideas about even making it work better particularly on the shorts that were stopped out early for a loss. Thank you.
Howard
Hi DT and fellow members,
The excitement builds...when will you be launching your intraday IMS service... I can't wait and I hope I have the chance to hope on board.
I would also like to pose a question to you and my fellow IMS lovers.
Would you entertain the idea of setting up a service with a borker to AutoTrade the signals??
Much like what a lot of Forex people do.
For people who are in different timezones (I'm in Western Aust) it will help them catch all of the trades as I'm normally in bed by midnight and as we all know the Dow has a habit of late rallies (around 3:30am my time).
The other benefit of the Auto Trade service is that people who do not have sound money management will never risk more than your 2.5% for longs etc. It's all about giving your members the best possible chance to succeed.
I personally would not have any problems with DT autotrading the signal on my behalf and also taking a performance based commission (I think 20-30% is the industry norm)
Anyway, something to think about and certainly something to add to member services.
Great work thus far and bring on the intraday service.
Cheers
Bernie
Dear DT,
Kindly also include me as one of your invites to the IMS realtime signal alerts.
Thanks.
Ayodele
ayokoyejo@gmail.com
Thanks to the efforts of you and your team, I've been successfully trading the system since I joined in December 06. Thanks DowTrader for all your hardwork and continuous efforts to ensure the IMS system provides a very strong set of results. Your real time IMS alerts is yet another step in that direction. I'd be very keen to continue trading the real time IMS alerts and request you to kindly add me to the shortlist. Do let me know when you have any info on subscription fees etc. once you have worked out the final details.
Thanks again. Regards
Ayush (UK)
ayushagrawal@gmail.com
IM keen to get involved with this
We are expecting to go 'live' with our dowTrader RealTime alerts service within the next 48 hours. Our current trade is 'long' since Sept 12th, and Exhaustion Analysis is currently being applied to 'time' the next 'short' trigger, which is imminent. Whenever the IMS rises above 65, or drops below 35, Exhaustion Analysis automatically kicks in, to provide superior timing of long/short entries.
Note: As per regular policy, there is a strict limit on the number of members we will accept into our RealTime Alerts service. Our sign-up page will become live in the next 48 hours, at www.dowtrader.net - the subscription rate for the service has been set @ $20/month.
With Best Regards - DT
Dear Mariusz and Michael,
The easiest way to find the VIX is to go to your Google page and type in: cboe volatility index yahoo finance.
The CBOR Volatility Index (VIX) is a key measure of market expectation of near-term volatility conveyed by S&P 500 stock index option prices. Since it's introduction in 1993, VIX has been considered by many to be the world's premier barometer of investor sentiment and market volatlity. It is equally useful for the DOW.
Remember, anything approaching 25 on the VIX, expect DAILY VOLITILITY. Good luck!
Ron
Hello All,
I've been a member for over a year now and just wanted to say BIG THANKS for all you guys do. The Volatility Index (VIX) that Ron is talking about is an indices. Go to Yahoo Finance and enter VIX in the symbol look up. Can't tell you if it work just with th DOW or at all. I've just been trading the xWave singles as given.
Can't wait to see the dowTrader RealTime alerts service.
Keep up the great work,
James
Hi DT, can't wait to get into the new intraday service. I've definitely been much confused by intraday changes in xwave...
The rest of this note is for Michael who asked how to find to VIX on 9.9.
Actually, if you just type vix in google, you will get a reference to the yahoo page. When I did it was the first that came up.
It is treated as a symbol on yahoo, and because it is an index rather than a stock, it is preceeded by a ^... so in the symbol box on yahoo finance type:
^vix.
The vix is based on sp500 options.
the vxd is based on dow options.
The vxn is based on nasdaq options.
That's ^vix, ^vxd, ^vxn.
Good luck to all.
Rich
Re: Launch Of dowTrader RealTime...
Just a quick update - we are completing some final tests before going live with the dT RealTime service. These preparations should take no longer than an hour at most.
Some members will be awaiting a potential intraday 'short' signal today to the current long position.
However, this is unlikely as IMS is presently 91.1 [intraday] and has not started moving down in order to kick-into-action the exhaustion analysis tool.
It is a strong possibility [will see] a 'short' signal may be issued via email to dT RealTime members during the course of the next next day or two as IMS is almost at breaking point.
Keep an eye on the dT home page, the 'Subscribe' link/button will be placed at the bottom of the page tonight.
With best regards - DT
PS: The End-of-Day xWave Service will continue to remain free to all members until the end of 2007, then move permanently to our free portal, clickCharts.com
PPS: When signing up for dTRT, it is preferable to provide a reliable email address if possible, instead of the free email boxes [hotmail, aol etc.] which can cause issues due to excessive filtering.
To DT team
I just joined your real time service, but I noticed that on your clickcharts site (that you advised us on your email to keep an eye on) you only show your IMS escalator without the exact daily figure.
I am very glad that you started the real time service but for me to trade my system I need to know the exact IMS figure.
I am not trying to be difficult but i have been using it to trade my method, extremely successfully i may add, for the past few months.
So if it is possible please add it to your "clickcharts" site as well, or let us know if you will let the DOWTRADER site running as it is after the 1/1/2008.
I am sure a lot of people using it as an indicator for their trading, just like me.
At the moment i use the DOWTRADER site as i have been a member since March.
Thanks
Antonio
dT Update...
A quick note to thank all 'invited' members who have joined our dT RealTime service. You will now receive the service at the preferential rate of $20/Month, on a permanent basis.
At this point, the preferential rate will cease and the price will be fixed at our planned rate of $39/Month for all new orders/applicants - this is in order to keep a limit on the number of members and continue to maintain system integrity.
Regarding the IMS Oscillator numbers, we will work towards providing an absolute IMS number to support the indicator at clickCharts.com
A 'short' signal is likely/expected today, so members are advised to keep an eye on their emails. If we do issue a short signal, this will also be posted on our home page table [after the close] so you may double check - dowTrader.net
Have a great weekend - DT
anybody has an idea of how to take the DT Realtime trades using options? would it be better to trade ATM calls and puts and capture all the intrinsic premium or maybe 2 to 3 OTM strikes that could possibly double faster and are also cheaper?
Thanks if anyone has an idea there..
A 12 hour window for the reduced rate? You'd think the current members would have gotten a head start on the open public. So much for customer loyalty. Anyone want to lay odds that this doesn't make it to the blog with "comment moderation" enabled?
Great service! Been a member for a long while and have been anxiously awaiting for the service to 'go live'.
Just signed up moments ago at the rate of $95.00 for three months. I must say, however, I'm very disappointed at not having a chance to sign up at the $20.00/month rate. I left town early Friday for a weekend trip and came back only to find out the time had expired for me to sign up at $20.00/month.
Seems like I had only a few hours and missed it because of a trip, not because of any lack of disire or willingness to signup.
Not sure I understand why the signup methodology was handled as it was! I feel like I have been denied a fair chance at the initial rate. It was offered but only for a few hours. I hope I do not sound bitter, but I do not sit by the computer 24/7 just waiting on email messages!
Thands for a great service!
DT, if you read this I certainly hope you will reconsider!!!!
As a point of calrification regarding my recent post I am in no way complaining about the cost of the service. Either fee is more than fair. My only point is that there was such a very short window of opportunity to sign on as a charater member, even though I have been a member of the service for some time. Almost seems like the 'luck of the draw' was rewarded with no consideration for long term customers. Thanks for listening.
Dan S. said...
Astonishingly good system you have incorporating the exhaustion principle. A heartfelt congratulations and thanks for including me!
No rush, but there's one thing I was wondering if you could clear up? Peter P wrote that he discovered a benefit in exiting a short position anytime the end of day IMS is equal or greater to the previous day's closing IMS. DowTrader seemed to agree this is a good idea. Okay, so let's say you receive a real time email to go short. You do and set a 2 1/2% stop. But sometime after this, before the stop is reached or the signal is reversed, the end of day IMS goes higher than the previous end of day IMS, so you exit the position. At this point do you stay out until the next go long signal comes along, or do you jump back into your short position if the IMS reverses, comes down to the previous day's closing IMS and then continues heading down?
Thanks also to Ron on his very interesting VIX observation. I'll be watching it. And Elite, if you can I would be very interesting hearing about your trading rules if you care to email me.
Thanks all,
dsvideo@comcast.net
I would like to echo the comments of Antonio's post on September 20. I too have constructed a system that is very successful using the exact IMS values and the difference in those values from day to day. For example if there is a difference in the IMS values from the close one day to the next are below a certain threshold and other indicators I use signal a reverse, I exit and wait for conformation from the IMS to enter a new position. If the IMS difference is just 0.1 greater than that the threshold I set, I stay in the trade, even if all the other indicators say to go the other way. Having the exact value has helped remove the emotion that has plagued my trading before. Also, please keep the IMS value available in some format similar to the current DT website. I am able to access the info from my pocket PC using the Opera browser (the spread sheet part at the bottom of the current web page loads, but the graphs do not). It has been invaluable to have access to that info on the go and not tied to a computer at specific times of the day. I am looking forward to the new e-mail service but please don’t abandon publishing the IMS values or current ways of displaying the IMS info. Thanks for all your hard work and here’s to continued success.
Tim
I thought the window of oppurtunity for the offer was short but loyalty goes both ways.
I've been trading options with the DT. I use the DJX index vs the DJI. The DJX options have a 30 or 40 cent spread, but 90% of the time you can get that to 20 cents. Usually I will buy them 4 or five points away from the strike price in the money (143 Oct puts for the recent Go Short signal).
I set my stops with a 1% stop on the DJI, but as things go my way I tighten to keep the money I've made. It works for me.
One other thing I've noticed lately, the relation with the Dow and the dollar/yen. When the dollar is weak against the yen the Dow is down, and vice versa. About 80% correct so far this month on a daily basis.
The beauty of the DJX options is on expiration day if you forget them, they are cashed out, not exercised. They expire on Thursdays.
That's what seems to work for me.
dT RealTime Long/Short/Stop/Exit Rules Clarification...
dTRT Rules are fairly straightforward as mentioned in some detail earlier in this blog. For absolute clarification, here are the rules...
1. We enter LONG when the IMS starts to rise from below 35 AND our exhaustion analysis confirms this signal.
2. Once we are Long, we stay Long until either a 2.5% stop loss is hit [stop is set/fixed from entry point] OR a brand new Go Short signal arrives, as per Rule 3.
3. We enter SHORT when the IMS starts to drop from above 65 AND our exhaustion analysis confirms this signal.
4. Once we are Short, we stay Short until the IMS reverses from falling to rising, after a ONE full trading day grace period. The IMS can reverse at any point, eg., we can Go Short at IMS 88, then it drops to 85, 80, 76, then reverse to 79 [exit]. This is double-confirmed by exhaustion analysis, and we will send out email alerts immediately upon this 'exit'.
Note: The grace period is important so any new short signals are not exited at the end of the same day as they are issued due to whipsaw effects.
Only if IMS reverses on the following trading day or thereafter is the short exited based on the IMS reversal rule [#4].
Also Note: For every signal, we send out an email alert, whether it is 'long', 'short', or 'exit'...
With all Long signals, we will also specify the exact stop-point. An 'exit' signal occurs if a 2.5% stop is hit on a Long Trade, or Rule#4 is triggered on a Short Trade.
Hope this is all clear
Best regards - dT
Isn't the latest short stopped out?
Short entry at 13820 x 1% = 138 tics. 13820 entry + 138 = 13958 which was hit Monday morning. Or is there a different stop with the new alert service? I guess I'm not the only member who missed the $20 member price for the alert service.
Sorry everyone. I was looking at the Dec YM (YMZ7) and not the Dow.
Live Bulletin Board Will Support Email Alerts...
Over the next 3 weeks, we will be investing in advanced email broadcast software technology, which will ensure all our valued members will receive email alerts in a timely fashion through multiple outgoing email connections.
In addition, all email alerts will be backed up by a password protected [members only] bulletin board, which members can access to double check the latest [and fully archived historical] signals. Each member will receive their username/password and access info by seperate email.
We are also investigating email to sms service technologies, with a view to implementing/launching later this year or early 2008. All these additions are @ no extra cost.
Our apologies for email delivery delays last Friday reported by more than one individual - this was an smtp connection error which has since been resolved. Also cause for adding a bulletin board for our members asap.
Despite the delay, most members got in at 13820 [Short] or better, and it looks like the trade is proving to be another winner for us - but lets not get ahead of ourselves this early in the swing, wait & see how it pans out.
Keep well - dT
If anyone wants to receive the alerts to their mobile via text go to ipipi.com You can forward all your emails from your regular account to the ipipi account then set a filter in your ipipi account so it only sends the Dowtrader alert to your mobile. Works well for me.
Have you considered setting up auto trading?
Just a quick note to let our members know - we have now reached our membership limit/quota for dT RealTime as stated on our web page.
Existing members may continue to renew quarterly. However, no more applications will be accepted from 'new' members, as the system is no longer available to the open market. We will only accommodate new members if there is a cancellation from an existing member and a slot becomes available.
We plan to launch a 'mobile' service in due course, which will allow receipt of long/short signals from email-to-sms, which we are presently developing. In addition we are also looking at developing 'autotrading' of signals with various tech-savvy brokers - this will be due out late 2007/early 2008.
Of course, these add-ons will be free to all dtRT members.
Best regards - dT
Thanks gprs4touring ipipi.com is a great addition it works for me also
To Andy
Your method seems to quite good using the 3 contracts and scaling out at the 25/50/75 on a daily basis!
How do you adjust when the market opens lower than the orignal alert
Would you give me more info on this? I have worked my pencil too just wondering Thanks!!! Eva
ClickCharts help wanted!
I am based in the UK and would like to make use of the tips shown in ClickCharts, but I am not sure how UK time will fit in. Can anyone help, please, especially anyone in the UK already using the charts?
Is anyone in the UK using tradindex or similar to trade the Dow ?? If so I would appreciate any help/advice being a newbie .
tnx ,
Robert
Hey Members, These last two trades have been fantastic. Unfortunately, my account balance couldn't pull me through these first two trades to be fully in on these last two awesome trades. I've had to guess at some entry and exit points until my transfer clears. I did pocket $600 on this trade last week.
I wanted to toss this idea out to the blog for comments. Can we better capitalize on these price swings to get in and out of the market (in addition to following our DT signals exactly)?
One idea that I like is to buy one contract and stay on for the entire trade. This is for those who can swing multiple contracts... Set a trigger to purchase an additional contract if the price swings against you by 100 points and a trigger to offset (Sell)this contract when it moves back 100 points.
This strategy is a very opportunistic strategy, which is what I really like about it. It's very simply to pickup on some of the swings that the market throws at us every day.
Another option is to wait and set the trigger after the second or third day of a trade. This may be more beneficial on short trades. Obviously the last thing anyone wants is to double up on a losing trade. This is always a risk.
If I use this strategy, I would have to use it everytime, so that teh benefit of the DT trade odds work in my favor over time. I don't want to guess at what feels like a good trade. That has failed me more times than I'd like to count.
Another vaiation...( I'm trying to determine if this actually reduces risk or increases it... statistics experts, please chime in...) This would be to buy a third contract if the price drops against you buy another 100 pts. The benefit of this is that you could decide to take only 50 pts for each contract or take 100. This shorter field goal is easier to reach and you get back out quicker.
A better move may be to just look for two seperate 100 point moves. The overall idea of this strategy is to offset the total risk of the trade by "banking" chunks of points.
It's obvious that the mini dow contract swings this way and that in the course of a trade, so I'm looking for ways to pick up some extra points here and there. Like I said, I would have to keep one contract following the DT signals, since many times I miss out on some of the bigger swings.
The other thing I like about this strategy is that it gives us 2 or three chances at making the same decision about an entry and exit point. It can be very frustrating to realze that I missed out on a big swing. This strategy, if used every time, still employs DT's very high success ratio and at the same time, reduces the risk for the second entry point, if we use it consistently every time, because of the simple point that the second and third trades hold out for another price point farther way than the original entry price. This opportunity may not present itself in every trade, but that's also a strength of the strategy.
In the example of a long trade, waiting for an aditional 100 points is just that much closer to the 2.5% stop price and thereby reducing thee risk for the second trade by 20% or so.
I'd love to hear if anyone has any thoughs about this strategy. It's certainly not rocket science, and just another variation of the 50, 75, 100 pt quick hits that some others have posted about.
The ultimate test would be to purchase the intra-day historical prices for the dow mini contracts and back-test it using one of the Excel add-ins or other commercial backtesting program, but that's a little down the road, in my case.
Thanks,
Corey H.
Hi dT
I'm a subscriber both to the "old" Xwave system and the new realtime system. I REALLY hope we can still have access to the Xwave visual IMS and daily figures after end of this year. I note the IMS is shown on Clickcharts, but it's yesterdays static figure, not the live one shown on Xwave. It's really helpful to know where the IMS is at any given moment, rather than just having yesterdays static figure and just waiting for the email to say point of exhaustion is reached. Thanks for your efforts, a few bad calls, but mostly brilliant! Thanks.
Hi DowTrader, I am really looking forward to your launch of mobile alerts, as well as the autotrading.
Have you considered using a service called Collective2 (http://www.collective2.com) who provide an autotrading API which works with most of the online brokerages.
Just a thought...
Can Anyone tell me how to use ipipi web site (step by step)because i tried didn't work . thanks a lot
dT, About autotrading: some brokers like thinkorswim do not allow certain coutries to open accounts ie Canadians!!!
Help
I have just signed up to ipipi.com to try and forward e-mails from Dow Trader and turn them into text messages to send to my phone.
This may be simple to some of you out there but it is quite complicated.
I have tried using support at ipipi but they are at best useless.
So you are my only hope!
Can anyone please type out step by step instructions and I will be forever grateful
Cheers
JT
Very interesting system, keep up the good work!
Dear DT
First of all, thank you for a system that WORKS!
You have mentioned that the current DT page will move to Click charts.
Will it be available in the same format? I use the IMS% as a vital tool in my trading. PLEASE tell me that it would still be available at 20 min updates!!
Kind regards and once again thank h you.
Danie
Well done DT on the continued performance. I realise their is a strong correlation between the Dow and S&P 500, but I am wondering if your IMS can be developed specifically for the S&P. This would allow you to have many more subscribers, and to easily autotrade the signals, as the S&P E-mini has so much more volume than the Dow - liquidity would not be a problem. Access to autotrading would be fantastic, but I think this would only be viable on the S&P?
Thanks again.
Question for Gps4touring,
I have set up an account with ipipi.com, and registered my email address and mobile phone in this account, my question is this, how do I set up to have my emails sent from my regular email address to the ipipi system?
Dear DT
When do you expect to launch the mobile alerts? This will be a huge advantage to be able to recieve the live alerts, as I am not always in the office.
Shane.
Ireland.
As far as ipipi is concerned you just need to register your mobile phone number using the international number, then, set the forwarding rules. Click 'create new rule' then if the only email going to ipipi is the DT alert set @unconditional forwarding' but if you are forwarding from another email account you need to select 'if the messages FROM field' then 'contains any of' copy and past the DT email address into the box. Then select 'rule active status' at the top then click 'submit'. Job done.
As far as how to set up forwarding from your own email account, that would depend on who your account is with and whether they provide a forwarding service, so, sorry I can't help much there unless you have a Hotmail account.
Good luck.
I would also like to add my voice to the rest - please dT - consider having the current Dowtrader website continue next year as it is now.
I'm also subscribed to the Real Time signals but it does help a lot if we know exactly what the value of the IMS is at any given time.
Hoping that you would listen to the 'tribe'.
Michael
Yes PLEASE implement Auto-Trading ASAP!
Dear DT, is IMS weighted? i mean, do you count what part of the DOW each company takes?
Hi There
I tried the ipipi.com and it didn't work with the last signal, so I am not going to use them again! I have just signed up with sms2email and their tests worked fine.
I am hoping that the dow trader will send me a test email to confirm it....
Meanwhile it is a great service, and that's why I want to get the signals on time....
Philip
Folks
Buy a blackberry or some other device and get your signals on time. DT, value of realtime signal is clearly shown over last two trades. well done on a great development. looking forward to auto trading system.
onwards and upwards
teleflip.com is free and incredibly easy to setup
Dear DT,
I had recently send some questions to the support group and they seemed most open to my suggestions.
I got in the long of Oct. 22 but failed the sell signal of Oct. 31. I was even in front of my computer on the day of the sell and with the IMS up about 10 points, I left. I was most surprised when I returned after the close to see that a sell signal was given(and a VERY good one in retrospect). I covered my long on the open of Nov. 1 but waited for a retracement and never did get in. There was a great fib retracement on 11/6, but I thought for sure the exhaustion was complete(shame on me for second guessing but I also thought for sure it exhausted on 11/7 and 11/8). How does it know? I love it. BUT alas I also have NO idea where it is...and did the IMS reverse as it was going down for the buy(and the reverse on the up especially on OCT. 31)! Again, what a great call. BUT I think there are some improvements that would help us get ready for the signal instead of being glued to the computer and actually plotting the IMS by hand to see if it has reversed.
My suggestion is to have a daily (intraday) graph right below the daily IMS. It would plot the IMS on 20 min. increments AND we could see if it reversed or was close. AND right below that graph also have an(intraday) graph of the exhaustion number(whatever it is whether it's in percent or in numbers) SO that we can see that it's close. That way we can plan. The propriety of it would be of no concern to DT as we are only seeing the results, not the way they are calculated. AND with 750minds(# of real timers) maybe we could come up with other uses. Eg.On a day like today(11/19-big down day) where is the exhaustion number? Could it be used to add to the position AND in the same way lighten up as the market rises. Once we see how it responds on days like today(and HOW did it keep us short for the Oct. 31 sigal? I would have covered way before the new buy). But it was great even if we would be stopped out by the 2.5% cover on this long. How or would it have helped on the fib. retracement of 11/6?
And I am sure there are hundreds of other ways it could be used.AND you who are using the IMS intraday would be even more happy with this. I would also like to see a way to access the past intraday charts of the IMS and the exhaustion numbers. If it would be too hard to go back to the beginning, maybe we could start now...for those of you who like to go back and look for different uses.
I am so very excited about this possibility. Maybe I didn't explain it exactly, but I'm going to make it my mission to do all I can to get it implemented. It will make our signals state of the art. Thank you for your open mind.
Howard dmalig@aol.com
Dear DT,
I would also like to add my voice to the rest - please dT - consider having the current Dowtrader website continue next year as it is now.
I'm also subscribed to the Real Time signals but it does help a lot if we know exactly what the value of the IMS is at any given time.
Precision Exits & Stop-Losses...
As most of our members know, the dT real time service takes into account two independent measures [IMS indicator AND Exhaustion Analysis] to arrive at our dTRT entry/exit signals. These are essential to maximise 'precision' signals when the system projects an uptrend or downtrend in the Dow.
Through a continuous effort of idea-development and testing, our exhaustion-analysis now takes into account several intra-day market momentum indicators. This allows improved [more precise] entries/exits.
What we have found recently, is that the same logic can be applied to the stop-loss itself...
For 'long' trades, as you know we provide a 2.5% stop loss point from he entry. However, it is advisable that members wait until a stop-loss [exit] is actually published on our bulletin board, before simply auto-exiting when the stop is hit...
This is in light of new developments [exhaustion analysis confirming the uptrend is still strong] which allow us to keep a position open, despite a stop-loss being hit, and carry the trade a bit longer.
On 21st November, although the stop was hit at 12748 intra-day, we held off providing an exit signal due to a special development with our 'exhaustion analysis'. The exhaustion was in favour of a continuing uptrend despite the stop loss being hit...
Therefore, our position remained 'long' despite the stop being hit. On Friday, the market did indeed rally some 180 points. A signal was issued a few minutes ago [Monday 26th November] for exiting the market at the opening, Dow @ 12980.
To summarise, whenever a 2.5% stop-loss is hit on a long trade, it is important to wait until the stop-loss 'EXIT' is actually published on our bulletin board [email alerts will also be sent]...
This allows us to make maximum use of our highly robust, and finely tuned exhaustion-analysis technology, which often indicates to 'stay long' despite a stop being hit.
Best regards - dT
Dear DT,
Although we missed the bottom,for those people who watch Elliott waves, there is a beautiful example of 5 waves up and an ABC correction. The DOW bottomed on the close 11/26 at 12724 and advanced on 11/27 in 5 waves up to 12989. It then retraced 3 waves down, first to the 38%(fibonacci) level 12887 and then finally to the 62% fib level at 12825 and then blasted off into what will be a 3 wave(fast,powerful) or a C wave. I'm hoping to someday be able to evaluate these levels, perhaps on an intraday level but for sure on a daily level. This would be done with the exhaustion values...I hope. A beautiful example would have been the sell signal on 10/31 and the 38% fib retraement on 11/6. I'm hoping the exhaustion level would have helped to see that this was only a retracement and not the start of a move up. Meanwhile, we have to be patient.
Howard dmalig@aol.com
I just ran across this system today for the first time.
I manually backtested it for all of 2007 up through 11/26/07 using ProFunds ETF's - UltraDow30 (2X for Long swings) and UltraShortDow30 (2X for Short swings).
According to my calculations - the results were.... 58.54% YTD (using Opening prices, excluding commissions, slippage, costs of potential margin money and not including any interest made while in cash).
Cheers!
Skip Phairas
Soon to be New Member
Hi DT,
Back from the jungle and I see things have gone way over hi-tech. Anyway thanks for all the new developement. I'm hoping its not too late to request to be on the real time intraday alearts. I would really appreciate access to this wonderful tool.
My email is divoire@gmail.com
Thanks
Divoire
if any of you have yahoo mail, you can add DT to your mobile alert, thats what I do and it comes to my cell in a matter of seconds.
Wow! I have to say... from someone who has tried many trading systems, this is by far the most sophisticated and at the same time very easy to understand. What a concept! - I am actually getting results! Unlike the many 'Get Rich Quick' schemes I've fallen in the hands of in the past.. Thanks a million and keep up the great work... looking forward to doing more trades.
DT
We are short...feels like we should be long(I am a real timer). Feels like we are out of sink. The IMS is up(86). I feel like I have to stay in front of this computer because either a cover short OR cover short and buy could be issued any moment...and it could. If I don't watch, I get unfavorable fills(last 3 times as I was not right there...then I feel BAD because my % winning is less and losses more). I couldn't wait for the exhaustion analysis and was willing to pay whatever. Now I feel like it's just not availabe to me! I would like to be more involved in it...see it, feel it,play with it, and maybe even contribute to new ideas. I wanted this to be my "go to" investing system maybe for the rest of my life.In lieu of not allowing us to be involved in the Exhaustion values, maybe you could have little updates for us real-timers. Yesterday and today(12/7/08=10:11AM market open now for 42 min.)we could be freer and not so up tight. Please let me be involved...a really cool intraday chart of the IMS and Exhaustion values with modern charting would really help. That's what we are paying for. If you have to raise the costs to set up the modern charting(studies on it, fully manipulable,etc like all modern charts)then so be it.Thank you. This has great, even unbelievable, potential.
I noticed when the Trin ($trin) closes above 1.50 the dow will rally next day at open. Hopes this helps!
dT RealTime Dow/IMS Chart...
We are presently working on developing a dT RealTime dow/IMS chart, which will provide the Dow Jones Index and the IMS underneath, updating every 10 minutes [in real time] throughout the trading day...
This will allow dT RealTime members to view the actual IMS indicator, which is critical information, central to our trading strategy. It will also allow more savvy traders to add/implement their own strategies. The development of this chart, should be completed in the next 5-6 weeks [or earlier], and will be incorporated within our bulletin board pages, accessible by all dT RealTime members.
We will also publish in the next few hours, a step-by-step page which demonstrates how our IMS & Exhaustion-Analysis strategy works. This is intended to provide a clearer understanding on how we determine all our dT trading signals. The page location for this is: www.dowtrader.net/dt.htm
Please check in a few hours time...
With best regards - dT
I have been making observations and notes as I have been trading the dT (IMS indicator and Exhaustion Analysis) seeing if there are ways to tweak it and make it even more effective.
I have yet to find any implementable patterns which would over the long run improve it's outstanding results. But I feel that they must be out there.
Have any other members added rules to their trading the dT that have further improved results and that you would be willing to share? There is no doubt that the dT is a fabulous system, but perhaps there are a few astutue observations from fellow investing detectives, an effective tweak here or there that would bring it up yet another notch. Anybody?
Dan Sperling
dsvideo@comcast.net
Published:
www.dowtrader.net/dt.htm
Provides a clearer understanding of how we arrive at the dT signals, includes the process, rules, and some insight into the exhaustion analysis.
Best regards - dT
When are you guys starting auto trading? Can't wait
The current signal is: Dow is currently @ 13221. Position will remain STAY LONG until a new Short signal occurs, or we hit a 2.5% stop @ 12890
My question is as it goes up (hopefully) should the 331 stop loss move up?
Corey
Keep the ideas coming and thanks for your efforts to reduce the 2.5% stop ouch!
This system is great and a Big Thanks! to you DT for making this happen for us!!!!!!!!!!!!!
I am spread trading using your DT signals. My question is about using a stop when entering a trade. If after a go long/short signal the Dow reverses, what stop level should I use. I have seen in other comments about using 1% and also 2.5%. What is this a percentage of? Is it 1% of the Dow? ie if the Dow is at 13,000, do you set the stop 130 points below/above that (1%) or 325 points (2.5%). Or is it 1% (or 2.5%) of the IMS index. ie if the IMS is at, say 17% and you have a go long signal and it reverses, is your "exit" signal triggered 1% below that (or 2.5%)? In which case, should I not use any stop at all - which normal advice says is dangerous. Additionally, do I only take notice of an exit signal at the end of the day, rather than during the day? I would appreciate you clarification on this point, as it will determine the size of bank I need to trade with. Digby
Happy Holidays...
Hope you are all enjoying the current trade - we are LONG since the Dow hit 13221 - it's a good feeling to go into the hols...
A lot of new [innovative] ideas are swimming around in my mind right now - I am looking forward to making them real - and will continue to do my best for you all through 2008, God Willing.
Spare a thought for those less fortunate than us & give what you can - not just this time of the year - but whenever you can, it's never all about cents & dollars - I know I owe my own life & success to that part of the spirit which serves well those who do give. Who knows, maybe that is where great ideas originate from, and begin to take shape.
Keep Well - From The Heart
dT
DT
Wow! We just went long only on Dec.20th...we have had 3 total trading sessions and we are at 63on the IMS. That means tomorrow if the IMS goes above 65 and reverses and the exhaustion confirms, we could go short tomorrow? So, and I'm not complaining, that means even if I am on Christmas break, I'll have to be watching the computer tomorrow and Friday. Again, I'm not complaining...it just seems almost like day-trading. Is there any way to send an e-mail saying the exhaustion is close to giving a signal...and that we should be watching more closely. It was nice to take a break these last few days.
Thank you dmalig@a0l.com
Hi DT thanks for the continued great service and the latest blog from you. I agree 100%, what you sow you reap. GOD Bless
I am wondering if you could somehow give us a link for each line (day) in the dowtrader.net/members area. This day line link when clicked on would show all the info for that day ie. a link page showing all IMS numbers every 10 minutes for that day.
Thanks
DT,
Thank you for your Holiday Message as they mirror my beliefs.
I donate a large % of the profits that I receive from your system to those less fortunate, as anonymous as possible. Perhaps your generosity is working more than you think.
Best Wishes,
Dave
Hi all,
I've been a subscriber for more than a year and have just been observing. Want to go ahead and do something now.
Does anyone out there use the Realtime system to trade the DOW $5 mini? How has it been going and anything I should look out for?
Many thanks.
Sunny.
DT, We've had a great streak with the last few trades! Thanks for the clarification in the Long signal yesterday...[subject to exhaustion analysis]. We'll hold tight until either an exit or go short signal is generated. We came within 30 points of the stop yesterday, but so far today, the Dow is up. I really appreciated your last post for the holidays.
Take care,
Corey H.
Hi DT
Just a quick note to say well done on a few nice trades lately. Also to say thank you for Barrick Gold (ABX) on clickcharts, I didnt buy any shares, but did put a trade on with my spread betting company, up over 800 points now, sweet!
Shane.
Trading 'stocks' using the IMS...
Okay, here's a bit of an insight for valued members & readers of this blog - Over the past few weeks, I have been studying the 30 individual stocks in the Dow more closely than usual, with a singular goal of developing a strategy whereby the Dow 'stocks' themselves could be traded profitably utilizing the IMS indicator...
As you know, the IMS is designed to identify trend-patterns within each of the 30 stocks to more accurately define the underlying trend in the overall Dow. This intricate study into the individual 30 stocks, provides a key advantage/edge towards uncovering hidden gems within the Dow, which trigger market turns and 'drives' it upwards, especially when the IMS is low.
Quick Example: January 4th 2008, the IMS was very low, ready for the market to enter a short term rally. At this point, I noticed one company, Coca-Cola [KO] already making a strong, volume-backed potential reversal to the upside. the stock was priced at around 61.80. Turns out, KO became one of the initial trigger companies which started the recent short-term rally in the Dow.
Now, rather than find the 'optimum' point to sell the stock, I adopted a simple rule, to hold for 2 straight days and sell at the second days market close [this rule works very well throughout my research on many scores of similar stock trading opportunities based on the IMS].
So, 2 days later, I sold KO at 63.57 - nothing to write home about - but it still represented a 2 day profit of 2.8% (compunded, you do the math), with 100% capital up-front [no margin].
I don't plan to make any software developments based on this trading strategy, but I will continue to test it with actual capital to further confirm my findings.
In 2008, I plan to launch a brand new 100% free public blog, which will provide all of my day to day trades for the Dow stocks, using the above strategy. I will use a capital base of USD$250,000 of my own money into this project. All buys/sells will be publicly recorded/timestamped on the blog.
This is the most practical and sincere way of expressing the true value of the IMS indicator, when utilized with intelligence, and astute risk management techniques, towards trading Dow 30 stocks. The only income I will derive from this is through trading these stocks. If successful, I may - time permitting - consider developing software at some point in the future for our 750 dT members.
With best regards -dT
From what I saw in the last 2 years, mini-sized DOW (future) usually trades at a premium over the cash marekt of DOW index. On Jan 25, 08, the closing price of YM (due Mar 08) is about the same as cash marekt at 12200.
What does it mean?
HI, I was wondering if this system could work on a bull\bear mutual fund with just trading the close at day end?
Hello DT
I am confused how to find the IMS and will there be any more x-wave?
I received an e-mail but I couldn't find the IMS anywhere
Thanks! Eva
How can i find the ims value for today? Your free site does not give the reading or shows if the ims turned today.
I need it to trade-add to my short position from the live signal.
Thanks in advance.
Having benefitted from the excellent service provided by Dow trader. I would like to know if you have any plans for developing a similar system for trading a major currency market, such as US$:UK£. Having seen the results for the Dow I would be very interested in such a system, as i'm sure many others would be too.
Many thanks,
Tony
What's the update with the live IMS indicator? Is there any way for the RT members to access the IMS reading?
I think there are a lot of members using it for there trading.
Please set it up as soon as posible.
Thank you
You appear to have stopped publishing your dow / IMS chart, or any IMS data at all. I hope this means you will soon be providing the dT RealTime dow/IMS chart that you indicated on December 14th "should be completed in the next 5-6 weeks"
dT Reminder: Coming Soon [Feb 2008] Free LIVE Dow/IMS & Chart To Be Integrated Into dTRT Members Site [www.dowxp.net/members]...
Just a quick reminder - we will be integrating into our dowTrader RealTime members area - a Dow & IMS real-time information & chart.
Please click on the below link to view a screen snapshot of this project objective:
http://www.dowtrader.net/dT-realtime-IMS-screen-snapshot.gif
The IMS reading will update [in Real Time] throughout the day, as will the DJI. Below this will be a 3 month DJI chart where users can move their mouse over each daily bar to view the DJI/IMS. The live updates will allow members to keep an eye on the IMS and provide precision detailed entry & exit points. Many of our members have suggested developing this service so they can apply their own independent strategies backed up by the IMS indicator.
The development costs & time for these additions are substantial due to charting component coding and real time data crunching. Inevitably, this will take a little longer than anticipated - we are expecting to go live with this within 2-3 weeks - please rest assured I am pushing my team to make this priority #1.
I have no immediate plans to charge any extra for this added component - it will be free, and incorporated within the current dowxp members area.
With best regards -dT
Hello DT team
I would like to share with you an idea which I have been following with my own trading strategy and a suggestion that can be very helpful and profitable for all the members.
Why don't you add a second trading alert when the market moves a lot further from the initial trading signal but the ims is still rising or dropping so we can add to our initial position if we want or get back in the market in case we have been stopped out following our own stop loss strategy.
I think all the members will love the idea.
Thanks
Antonio
Hello DT,
A couple of suggestions. I was watching the Dow pretty closely on the morning of Friday before last, when we reversed position from Long to Short at around 10:15 a.m. The first hour of trading has a tendancy to be volitile. The Dow shot up 100 points and started to drop just as fast. This sudden drop seems to have triggered the reversal signal to go short. That worked out great for Friday, having lost 170 points to close the day. Last week, the Dow and the IMS continued to rise all week. Would you consider the signal reversal premature or a false positive?
I'm not sure if there is any way to take this first hour of trading into consideration for the EA... just throwing that suggestion out there. An alternative approach could be... (if you agreed that some reversals are premature or false positives) to implement a "Second chance" reversal signal, such as Friday afternoon/Monday morning (Feb.4). Using a second reversal signal would admittedly complicate things, and this would only benefit traders who are not fully margined and can afford to "double-up" when certain opportunities arise.
Having the benefit of hindsight, did you notice anything take place this monday/last Friday that would have triggered a reversal? For myself, seeing that the IMS continued to climb to 90%, and knowing that the Dow had it's best week since 'o3 last week, I used the opportunity to buy another contract going short, and picked up an extra 300 points. We've been doing awesome these last 3 weeks, thanks for all the hard work!
Take Care,
Corey H.
dT,
Great improvement in posting the exact time you issue each signal and today, giving us a heads up for a potential short trade. As you know, timely entries are critical for those of us who trade for tight profits on a portion of our trade. Please keep alerting us before market open when you believe there's a reasonable chance of a signal being issued close to the open.
This will help me maintain maximum vigilance for a timely entry in a fast moving market by refreshing this site very often since it typically takes 10-20+ minutes for your signals to arrive on my Blackberry.
In light of our continual research and development, we have found significant advantage for dT Real Time traders, in closing the current 35/65 bands to 50/50. Note: The IMS itself remains exactly the same as always, only the 35/65 bands are adjusted to 50/50 in order to take advantage of trading opportunities during earlier than expected reversals.
Putting this into practice, we now simply wait for the IMS to move below 50 [instead of previously 35] before a potential LONG opportunity is signaled. Similarly, we wait for the IMS to rise above 50 [instead of previously 65] before a potential SHORT opportunity is signaled.
This logic will be adopted with immediate effect - and all future signals will be based on these conditions, as per rules specified on our web page: http://dowtrader.net/dt.htm
With best regards -dT
Hello DT
How much longer will it take to add the IMS value reading to your real time board?
I need it to trade my trading strategy together with the real time signals.
Before, when we had the xwave site up, the whole process was running smoothly together with the real signals and i managed to bag alot of points.
Please, please hurry up!
DT
On the Dow chart, would you consider putting blue trianagles below the day bar for past long signals and red triangles above for past short signals. I believe this would be an extraordinary visual of the success of the signals and quickly, at a glance, display the power and potential of following Dow Trader
Dear Dowtrader,
I've seen a tremendous improvement in the system. Kudos to you for identifying the pivot points to such a surgical degree. Are you still planning on setting the system up for autotrading? Not being able to watch the computer during the trading day, it would be such a blessing to have your trades automatically implimented.
Best regards,
Ron
Hello
Are you any closer to finalising the real time IMS charts as indicated on your blog page.
Looking forward to receiving this as an extremely useful tool. Keep up the excellent work.
Ladytrader
I have used the IMS since late 2006 with great returns. Really liked the format that posted the actual IMS reading so I could be prepared for a reversal. Any chance of having that even if it was 30 mins. delayed? Thank you so much for your work, you have changed my life. Sincerely, B.R
Hello DT
Regarding the 35/65 and the 50 band, that we just started using, which is fine, I have an idea that I use for my own trading but mainly for stop losses.
You can use the 35/65 band when the VIX (volatility index) is bellow 20 and the 50/50 band when it 20+.
This way on the low volatility period (which it could be weeks, months or even years) you can catch the bigger moves and on the high volatility periods, when the market moves fast and sharp you catch all the moves when the IMS turns.
The reason I say that is because on the low volatility period the ims indicator is more likely to stay in the middle and give multiple false entries/exits.
At the moment the VIX is above 20 and it has been for some time.
It was bellow 20 for a couple of years prior to the last turmoil so I think the IMS performed really well at that time when we used the Xwave with 35/65 band.
This is just a thought and I am sure you will do some backtesting and let me know if I am right.
Thanks
Antonio
Hello DT
How close are we to the IMS chart being published for us?
Thank you for your service It's the best!!!!!!
Eva
DT, Thanks for your vigilence with the RealTime IMS. We've recovered everything lost from trade #61 already. Awesome! In hindsight do you see any improvements for the EA? The IMS kept dropping throughout trade 61 (false positive for the reversal). Imagine if we had've maintained the short trade (trade #60) and reversed direction to Long yesterday morning. You definitely know your stuff. I typically can see what's going to happen for a 30 minute time-frame, but I have no idea how you manage to successfully call these swings on a 10 day scale.
Kudos!
CH
Hi DT, Can I add my request to get autotrading up and running. The real time signals are of little use to us here in Aus, unless we stay up all night watching the market.
Can I also suggest you review the short exit point. It appears to have exited too soon on a few occassions. Of course no-one can ever pick the bottoms exactly,but now we are in a bear market, we would expect the market to be more oversold before turns, and highs to be less overbought. This is unlike the 2 year DT has been running, when we were in a bull market and most of the profits were made on the long side. I am not sure if your short exits and long exits having different biases on your exhaustion indicator, but if so I suggest you review just the last part of the track record since the bear market started, to see if the triggers should be reset.
Thanks for the great service.
I think Antonio from March 8 is really onto something concerning the volatility. I went back and checked the trades going back to the beginning and crossed them with the vix over/under 20. The difference is remarkable. The Dow Trader is around 80-90% accurate when the Vix is below 20. It's barely 50% when the vix is above 20. Not sure what to do with that info, but I know you folks at Dow Trader are much smarter than me and can find a way to implement it. Thanks and keep up the good work.
Any update on the IMS realtime posting for members?
Keep up the great work!
Comment On Current Market Bias To The Short Side:
We have taken a number of negative hits these last few days - primarily we feel, due to the 'fundamental' information coming into the market on a day to day basis, overriding the purely technical bias. Such events [mostly pre-opening shock announcements] as sudden rate cuts, rescue plans for Bear Stearns from $2 a share to $10 a share, speculation over further sovereign funds rescuing financials, etc., often creating abnormally excessive gap openings.
All our technical indicators [both IMS & Exhaustion Analysis] are pointing to extreme overbought conditions, and the fundamentals keep coming back to swing another ditch attempt at re-igniting the market/avoidance of a deeper than anticipated recession. At these times, it may be better to simply close and stay out of the market, if traders feel uncomfortable riding through this storm. Indeed, our expectation, from a technical perspective, is that the markets are overbought, the bias remains negative, and what we are seeing are sudden bouts of hope on a day to day basis - some feint light at the end of a tunnel powered purely by news stories which remain subjective and without any solid strength. Effectively, what we are seeing may be 'a' bottom but in our technical viewpoint, certain not 'the' bottom.
In any case, we will continue to focus on the technicals, and maintain steadfast to the IMS. Members may wish to remain neutral [close positions and wait] until at least the time we go live with our dow/IMS Real Time chart, due for launch this coming weekend.
The live dow/IMS chart will allow members to have a better insight into the dow, and provide clearer signals & more personalized strategy implementation, should they wish to adopt this route. Effectively, you will see exactly what we see and enjoy complete autonomy to trade the IMS however you want, either in agreement with our calls, or set up your own combined strategies [a member mentiond the idea of applying the VIX to the IMS signals, which is the type of thing we are discussing here]. In any case, the live dow/IMS chart is most definitely worth the wait, as it will incorporate much needed information and a real-time window into the changing patterns of the IMS - users will also be able to apply their own stop-loss points and re-entries/exits accordingly.
With best regards -dT
dT Bulletin: Important Information Regarding Your dowTrader Login...
Just a quick word to let members know, we plan to go live with our new, fully improved site, including the Live DOW/IMS chart tomorrow [Friday 4th April 2008] at around 5:00am Eastern [New York] time.
Your login page will change to www.clickcharts.com, but your username & password remains the same. Simply follow the below instructions to login:
1. Go to www.clickcharts.com, and click on the DOW|xTrend tab [the last tab from at the top of the page menu-links] which you will see from around 5am NY time tomorrow, and onwards.
2. Enter your username & password - this is the exact same as the one you currently use to access the old dowTrader bulletin board.
3. You will be able to view the live dow/IMS chart, plus a whole host of improved [free] functionality, such as the ability to add additional indicators, view latest intraday prices, apply the IMS to the major Dow 30 stocks, view any other stock from our database of over 10,000 stocks, get the latest technical stock ratings, stock specific news etc.
Please note, we have changed the name "Inter-Market-Strength" to "xTrend Real Time", or simply the "xTrend". This we feel is more appropriate as the indicator is desgned to objectively track the major index trend.
With best regards
dT
Important dt Members Bulletin:
All content from the original members bulletin board site dowxp.net, together with significant added functionality, including the brand new Dow/IMS Live-Chart is now located permanently at www.clickcharts.com.
Please note: The dowxp.net site will now close, and you may login at clickcharts using your existing email/password.
Extensive work has gone into integrating high quality, color-coded charting, live IMS Indicator[now known as 'xTrendRT'], a host of added technical indicators, free stock scans, intraday stock & index prices, stock specific news stories, etc., all add to a more holistic approach to trend analysis. Please check it all out - www.clickcharts.com - we sincerely thank our members for all the support and patience they have shown. We are now live at 09:20am NY time, Friday 4th April 2008.
With best regards
dT
Up To Date Bulletin:
Performance Table
Blog Link
We are now LIVE with our Dow/IMS real time chart/functionality since Friday 4th April 2008. Existing dT members can login to the dT service at clickcharts.com using their normal username & password.
You may view the up to date performance table for our Dow Long/Short Signals at www.dowtrader.net/dt.htm
There is also a link at the bottom of the main www.dowtrader.net page, for both the performance table and this blog page.
We integrated everything we do, into one site for an important reason - to allow members not only to view the actual IMS indicator [renamed xTrendRT], which is critical information, central to our trading strategy, but also to make use of our extensive database of stock information, charting tools, intraday prices, technical analysis, etc...
Moreover, this will allow more savvy traders to add/implement their own strategies, as they will be able to view the xTrend [IMS] oscillator in real time, and be able to see exactly what we see to determine long/short.
With best regards -dT
Hi dT
great to have the Live X-TrendRT Indicator on the new charts, just one question:
Is the volume really necessary, and if so, could we have it on the bottom of the charts, or have it optional, or as an indicator choice?
As it is , it's right there in the middle of my page, and I have to scroll the page up and down to see the cursor over the X-Trend Indicator on the very bottom, and to read it's value at the very top of the chart.
And volume is the last thing that interests me, especially since during the session it's always unrealistically high.
Thanks
Hello DT. Thanks for the improvements to your site. However to make the realtime system useful for those of us not in the US time zone, or those that can't sit by their pc all day, we really need autotrading to be up and running. Is there any update on how long before this will be available? Thanks.
Brand New...
SMS Alerts Coming Soon:
Completely free add-on for our valued members - we will soon launch free SMS alerts of all our bulletins/signals [as published on the xTrend screen] directly to your cellphone worldwide.
All you need to do (in a few days time) is go to 'My Profile' and add your SMS/cellphone number.
Note: This service is only available to quarterly members (not free trial users).
Best regards -dT
Hi DowTrader,
About HotScan. Can you add more category that we can scan. For example the bearish list today is about several pages long. I like to go short on stock that is below a 26 days or 34 days moving average. That may shorten the list to look at.
Also can the chart be loaded quicker.
Thank you very much.
dT
When are your sms alerts due to go live? That wopuld be a great addition.
What has happen to the Bogg? Is the Cell notification getting Closer?
Is any body out there
Micahel
Thank you for the new service. I have been with you since 2003 when I bought a paper book about trading. This service got better every year and is now super. I did a lot of backtesting with a few other traders and it seems you now offer a product that will do some good for us.
For all of you out there:
We have tried many many trading systems but were left with only 2 that work.
So here is our advice:
Swing trading: www.clickcharts.com
Day trading: www.dowteq.com
Market research: www.marketwatch.com
Best broker ever: www.interactivebrokers.com
Stick with all of them and you will become a proud investor.
Dear DT,
It would be really helpful if correlations could be added to the HotScans. I'd like to see 3 month and/or 6 month correlations between each stock and the Trend Index and xTrend. This would dramatically simplify selection from the HotScan stocks.
Thanks and Best Regards,
MichaelB
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