Several members of our Dow Trader service have asked us to set up this blog to share thoughts on our favorite market of choice - the Dow Jones Index which we trade daily using the Dow Mini.
Members know through witnessing themselves the consistent success of our trading system, with a full set of recorded trading results - every single trade, both winners and losers - published since Jan 2006 on our home page.
In this blog, we want to share member thoughts, our updates, bulletins, bits and pieces of info we feel our members [and potential members] will benefit from.
As you know, core to our trading system is our unique Inter Market Strength [IMS] Indicator, a powerful minute by minute analysis of the Top 30 Stocks which make up the Dow - the inter-relationship between the internal 'trend' dynamics of these stocks, ultimately provide one, all powerful, unique measure/indicator, which we call the IMS. Look at the results - the power/profitability of this method is self-evident. Through this blog, we hope to share a multitude of experiences.
Members are invited to participate in this blog. It allows you to view the very latest in our own trading, developments, ideas, etc., and provides a means to post your own comments/suggestions...
750 comments:
«Oldest ‹Older 401 – 600 of 750 Newer› Newest»Jim,
I too trade the diamond options in addition to the mini.............and have followed the directions of Larry in an earlier blog in January. Go out at least 45 days..... a strike price in the money and I buy with 1/2 my equity or whatever you are comfortable with.I use x wave recommendations......very successfully.
Joe
I'm going to trade YM(Mini Dow) with xStop and ES(Emini S&P) with xWave. Anyone doing this?
Best regards,
Allan
To all traders who hate to lose and do not mind building their account up slowly. Consider using a 50 pt. trailing stop when the market goes in predicted direction and a 50 pt. stop loss. Your accuracy will go way up. Then add
more contracts as you build up your account.
Good luck
Hi,
If I am using IB to trade YM and I set a stop. WOuld the stop be triggered if it is met after hours? I mean since eminis are traded all day long, it should also be triggered even after hours yes? Thanks so much.
Regards,
Hello,
I'm new at this. I have a question. If you enter the market at Go long and stay until it says stay long, then the next day a go short signal comes up, do you first sell your long position and then buy your short position?
I am a new member and would like some questions to be answered. First off, I would like to say WOW to Feb 27, 2007. This could be a good chance to score some points. My question is, I just started trading dow mini and I was wondering, how much do you make if you trade DIA? How much is a point worth in DIA? What index has the highest risk with the most payout? Thank You.
So how did everyone come thru the rollercoaster ride yesterday? Looks like people that went short could have cashed in pretty big. Did anyone do that?
Hey Folks,
Couple of links to help you get more out of this service. First is streaming quotes for as inexpensive as I could find them...
http://billing.finance.yahoo.com/realtime_quotes/signup?.src=quote&.refer=quote
Then there's $15 real time trades when trading the DIA with no minimum account balance at...
http://www.sharebuilder.com/
For those of us trading Mini's can really get a lot of help from the next link. Even if you don't use their service for trading, at least take advantage of how many learning tools they have. So much free info from these guys...
http://www.xpresstrade.com/
And last but not least...
http://www.insight.net/faqs.htm
You will be surprised how many questions there are on this blog that have already been answered by the folks that put this service together. Learn how to find the answers you need with the tools that people don’t charge for because in the end, questions like, "why aren't we trading on national holidays", don't really help any one. Even if they are answered.
To close it up I want to give DT many thanks for offering me the chance to put my future back in my court. I have been working for other people since my first day in corporate America and this service plus a little of my own capitol has separated me from the masses.
A toast! To breaking free from some one else’s money making machine.
Hi - I am new to futures trading and have a question..
I know we are to buy the nearest month contract. What happens when trading the nearest month and the expiration date arrives?
So for example right now it looks as if though there are a few "go long" indicators....I assume these are to buy the March contract. What happens to those contracts when we come to the 3rd Friday this month?
Hi All
I have read through the blog and cannot find an answer to question which is a s follows.
With the 1% stop loss do we actually physically put this into our trade. I will be using interactive brokers......so do i implement that when i long/short?
Or do we just exit when the system says so at 3:30pm? (ie when the systems 1% stop loss is triggered)
Clinton
bI am new and looking for a company to trade with.I have 5k to open my account.Not sure who to go with,Would appreciate some feedback.
This is question for Larry (The Compounder): In your post of 12/29/06 you mention that you're buying the "least expensive ATM strike". Does this mean you are looking across several expiration dates, or does this mean that you are look within a single expiration date at different near the money strike prices? If the latter, how far in/out of the money do you consider "at the money"? Are you checking deltas (as suggested by Dave)? I'm just getting started with DT, and want to make sure I understand your suggestions. Thanks in advance!
-MichaelB
To Didier UK,
I am new subscriber, nearly ready to start trading the Dow e-mini but I would like to clarify some details before…
Can you help me?
Thanks.
Jean-Claude
jcacf@aol.com
Hi there
For all the traders that want to view DT pages on their MDA,PDA.
I have the t-mobile Vario ii that runs windows mobile 5 platform, i installed the opera mobile (not mini) for windows ($24.00) and i can browse all the pages on DT site.
You can test it before you buy it, they give 30 day trial.
I think all the devises that run on windows mobile will work (visit the opera site to see if your devise is compatible).
They also support other platforms.
http://www.opera.com/products/mobile/
Best wishes
Anthony
In reply to Frank 10 feb I use Barclays stockbrokers - they use a subsidiary City Index in Moorgate to do cfd's just look them up on Google. I've never traded before and have just begun, so I found their customer help desk a great help before connecting to the dealing desk, they help you to order the trade using the right language, and they also call you back if there's any problem.
However, I'm certainly not getting five dollars a point, more like one or two, but they don't call them eminis, they call them cfd's, are they the same?
JD London
Signed up for this system and I think its the best system out there today.
Did anyone test the Xtrend system or any other of the 4 if you would close the position of the dow every day at the closing of 4pm and reopen at 9:30am and only take a new position if the signal didnt change overnight.this way you dont risk the overnight moves and you can use the daytrading margins for the mini dow ?
eedback to a couple of recent questions I saw out there.
- Contract expiration: you should be able to rollover the contract to the next quarter -- check with your broker.
- Stop loss: Always enter a stop-loss order whenever you enter any trade, I use 100 point stop-loss. I made the mistake of not putting in a stop loss once and got killed when I physically could not get back to my computer during a down-turn.
DT -- Great System, by the way!
Thanks,
Gil.
>>Did anyone test the Xtrend >>system or any other of the 4 if >>you would close the position of >>the dow every day at the closing >>of 4pm and reopen at 9:30am and >>only take a new position if the >>signal didnt change overnight
I personally would not want to pay all the commission that would come with this.
As far as the Xtrend backtesting against the GLOBEX, I think that would be an intersting study (if I had the time).
What would be even more fun, is if DT updated IMS signals during these sometimes crucial times, with the expectation that the IMS is a "hands-off" automated updated through the main server system used by DT.
Of course, I don't think there would be too much change in the IMS, because of the low volume & may not even work at all depending on the IMS parameters (with respect to buying volume on the 30m major complanies, which doesn't take place overnight obviously, just the futures trading...More thoughts.
I would like to see a "download page" introduced at some point where member's excel files & other things may be viewed. Additionally, I would like to be able to see the current results "since Jan 2006" updated to reflect 2007 performance to date (on probably the most used ...Xtrend). I would guess that 2006 figures were calculated with Xbasic.
With this I mean, the format we see every day, which keeps a running tally of the trades.
Dt are there any upgrades or improvements planned for the site soon? Such a great system deserves "extra" attention.
Cheers
HI,
MY HUSBAND AND I ARE NEW TO THE DOW TRADER, WE FIRST GOT IN ON MONDAY THE 2ND, AT FIRST MY HUSBAND AND I WERE GOING TO FOLLOW THE SIGNALS, THEN MY HUSBAND THOUGHT HE WAS A MASTER DAY TRADER OVER NITE AND WANT TO GET IN AND OUT OF POSITIONS MIND YOU NOT MAKING ANY PROFIT, SO FAR WE ARE DOWN 1000 DOLLARS, NOW THAT MY HUSBAND SEES THAT THE SIGNALS DO WORK
WE WILL BE GETTING IN AT THE NEXT SIGNAL CHANGE, BUT WE ALSO WILL HAVE SEPERATE ACCOUNTS, SO HE CAN DO WHAT HE WANTS I WHAT I WANT. I AM WRITING ABOUT THIS BECAUSE THE DOW TRADER SYSTEM WORKS, JUST FOLLOW THE SIGNALS AN EVEN THOUGH YOU MY LOSE A COUPLE OF DOLLARS IT WON'T COMPARE TO WHAT YOU WILL MAKE. DON'T WORRY ABOUT SETTING STOP LOSSES BECASUE ALL THEY DO IS STOP U OUT, THE DOW TRADER IS LIKE A BALL IN WATER ALTHOUGH IT MAY GET PUSHED UNDER WATER IT CAN NOT BE SUNK, SO I HAVE FOUND IT BEST TO JUST GET IN AND FOLLOWWWWW THE SIGNAL.
WHEN YOU SET YOUR OWN STOP LOSSES YOU JUST LOSE MONEY WHERE AS WHEN THE DOW MOVES AGAINST YOU IF YOU MADE SOME MONEY YOU CAN LOSE A LITTE BECAUSE WHAT WILL WHIND UP HAPPENING IS IT WILL GO BACK UP OR DOWN WHICH EVERY POSITION YOUR PLAYING AND YOU'LL MAKE SO MORE CASE IN POINT
WE LOST 1000 DOLLARS IF WE WOULD HAVE JUST LEFT IT ALONE AND FOLLOWED THE TRADE SIGNAL, THEN WE WOULD HAVE MADE 810 AND COUNTING SO ALL THIS TO SAY THAT THE SIGNAL WORKS JUST TRUST IT AND MAKE MONEY ,AGAIN DON'T SET YOUR OWN STOPS YOU LOSE MONEY AND SPEND MORE PAYING FOR COMMISSIONS, I HOPE THIS WILL HELP ANY NEW DOW TRADERS OUT.
Responding to the 3/2 posting from the new futures trader about when to rollover to the next contract: I recommend that you monitor the daily trading volume of the current contract vs. the next contract. When the volume of the next contract exceeds that of the current one, then simultaneously enter orders to go flat on the current contracts and take positions in the next. Usually this volume crossover will occur around 8 days before the expiration day of the current contract.
You can view the Dow e-mini volumes of the current and next contracts at:
http://cbot.com/cbot/pub/page/0,3181,1632,00.html
If you're trading the S&P, Russell or (yipes!) Nasdaq futures, the data is posted daily at:
http://www.cme.com/trading/dta/hist/daily_settle_prices.html?type=idx
Good luck . . . and welcome to the party.
Hi,
In response to "Anonymous" message from 3/9. I want to say the I completely agree that you need to trust the system. Like your husband, I too tried to outsmart the system and lost a lot of money. However, I don't agree with your advice on stop loss.
I think putting in a trade without a stop loss is like driving without a seat belt. Unless you can be by your computer during trading hours (the Dow e-mini trades from 7:15pm to 4pm -- that's 21 hours a day) you can be leaving yourself exposed on big declines.
That being said, your stops do not need to be tight. The system uses a 1% stop loss, which is about 120 points. That should give enough room to ride a wave without losing your shirt.
That's my opinion anyway, I would like to hear from other traders out there on this topic.
Thanks,
Gil
We are planning to develop an email alert system for members.
This will replace the current screen based system as it provides a number of key advantages...
[1] The signals will be posted 'LIVE' as they occur, intra-day, so members can enter/exit immediately instead of waiting until 3:30pm. This adds significantly to bottom line profits!
[2] We have a growing global membership, with individuals residing in countries as far afield as India, Japan, New Zealand, Singapore, etc. Email alerts remove the impracticalities of having to access a computer screen at inconvenient hours.
[3] Email alerts can be accessed via cells, PDA's, Blackberry's etc., so members become mobile while receiving timely alerts.
Members thoughts/views invited please! We hope to implement this as soon as possible... DT
Email alert system would be great!
Re: Gil's message of 3/14/07 on stop orders
In my trading experience (33 years) with equities, futures and options, Gil is ABSOLUTELY correct. Stops, properly identified at resistance and support levels, will allow remaining in a trade will saving your financial life if the market moves, furiously against you in seconds or minutes. Trailing stops are my personal favorite.
I'm responding to mr gonzo's 3/14 posting. I agree with your philosophy of having a stop in place at all times. Without a stop, you could be out fighting the crowds at Wal-Mart to save a few bucks, while the market is wiping out half your trading capital.
I want to make sure we're talking about the same stop strategy, 'cause I think there are 3 flavors mentioned on the various postings to this blog. The first is having a fixed stop based on your original entry price. This kind of stop, when set at 1%, would certainly trigger much too many stops to make money with this, or most any other, swing system. The second is the DowTrader-style stop, which compares the opening price with the end-of-day price and triggers an exit or reversal if price moved against you by 1% or more. Clearly this works but, as you point out, you're somewhat exposed intraday unless you're constantly watching the markets. Imagine, for instance, if the DT system had us in long positions on 2/27 when the Dow dropped 500 points. And there you are, shopping at Wal-Mart.
The third stop flavor - the one I think you're suggesting - is to have a stop that you move nightly to 1% below (or above for shorts) the closing price of that day. This keeps you in the DT game, but protects you from a wild intraday slide or runaway rally. I like it. Thanks for the idea.
So, I went back through Dow E-mini price data from 1/1/06 thru 3/16/07 and applied the adjustable 1% stop to see what happens. By my count, it triggered a couple of early exits on days that DT ultimately also triggered an exit or reversal. Would have put an additional 72 points in my pocket. No big deal. However, it also triggered stops on 7 days where the DT system did NOT trigger an exit or reversal at the end of the same day. So these were days where the price bounced off an extreme high or low and got back within the 1% DT-style stop trigger. Here's what I found: With the pure DT system I netted +456 points on those 7 trades; with the adjustable stop in place I lost 382 points. A whopping difference of 838 points. Not good. HOWEVER, when I changed the adjustable stop to 1.2%, the number of early stops fell to only 1, for a difference of 258 points. Much better! And when I set the adjustable stop to 1.3%, the net payouts were equal.
So, I think the magic number might be 1.3%, instead of 1%. What do you think?
Michael
I'm wondering which strategy is most popular. I took a loss on the XTrend, and am a bit leary of XWave. Thoughts? Which one has been making you money?
Hello, it is a good idea to have emails alerts but I would also like to keep the current graphic based system. This way we can see the general trend of the signal easily. I am a member since 2 years, I would be sorry to loose the graphics as a tool.
Thanks,
Martin
DT:
Email alerts would be helpful b/c of the vary degrees of trader availability.
Thanks,
Scott
anacortes trader,
Excited to be with you and look forwords to the new email alerts.
You mentioned: The signals will be posted 'LIVE' as they occur, intra-day, so members can enter/exit immediately instead of waiting until 3:30pm. This adds significantly to bottom line profits.
The sooner the better, please.
This could be a great add-on but not a replacement of the screen based system.
Best wishes
Hello all,
I would like to share a method that I use to trade this system that perhaps would be beneficial to other members out there. First let me explain that I trade the Emini contracts (primarily the Dow and Russell 2000), and have been doing so for a few years now, with varying degrees of success and failure. Like most new traders, I went through a tough learning curve before figuring out just what kind of trader I wanted to be. Last year, I ran across the Dow Trader system you see here, and I was intrigued by its simplicity and decided to subscribe. For several months, I have been tracking the live signals, have done backtesting in several different ways, have paper-traded it, and after settling on a methodolgy that suits my trading style, I began to do real trading with the system as of Jan 2007.
My method is a slight variation of any of the 4 published approaches, but is actually more like the old "System Z" method which was dropped from publishing earlier this year. In "System Z", a new trade is entered each time the IMS indicator changes direction (regardless of its value). In my backtesting, I noticed that the DOW almost ALWAYS moves at least 50 points (on an intraday basis) in the new direction before the IMS turns again to the other direction. Furthermore, the DOW very often moves at least 100 points before the IMS reverses again. With these observations, I decided to apply a profit target to each trade, and exit the trade whenever the target is met intraday. Backtesting this for all of 2006 produced very good results:
50/pt target - 51 wins 2 losses
2,416 DOW points
75/pt target - 46 wins 7 losses
2,788 DOW points
100/pt target - 40 wins 13 losses
2,795 DOW points
Although this method did not result in as many overall DOW points as the stated 2006 performance of the four published approaches (X-Wave, etc.), it does provide a higher winning percentage and a significantly lower drawdown of your account. I feel the drawdown factor is often overlooked and not given enough importance in determining a trading strategy. To me, it is an important factor because I have learned the hard way that large drawdowns can be scary and cause you to miss a big profit move by abandoning your trading plan at the wrong time.
My "target" method has continued to perform well in 2007 also:
50/pt target - 10 wins 0 losses
500 DOW points
75/pt target - 10 wins 0 losses
750 DOW points
50/pt target - 9 wins 1 loss
756 DOW points
So, to summarize, here are the rules that I trade with:
- When IMS turns up, enter LONG
- When IMS turn down, enter SHORT
- Do not consider value of IMS, only direction.
- I enter a position with 3 contracts. 1 with a 50/pt target, 1 with a 75/pt target, and 1 with 100/pt target.
- Exit position when target is reached (intraday), OR if IMS reverses before target is reached, then reverse position.
- I try to enter any new position as close to the 16:00 closing price as possible. I always wait until EOD to enter or reverse a position.
- I do not set any stop orders with this method. I always wait for the IMS indicator to tell me when to change directions. This introduces a slight risk that you will be caught in a strong market going against you, but days like Feb 27 are rare, and chances are good that the IMS indicator will have you going in the right direction anyway.
Hope this post may give others some good ideas. Keep up the good work DT, I believe your IMS indicator is a good one.
Regards,
Jerry
I try to enter any new position as close to the 16:00 closing price as possible. I always wait until EOD to enter or reverse a position.
Jerry,
How do you manage to do this if the IMS changes in midday? I look forward to maming some money. I havent been following the plans to the T and I'm in the red myself.
Brian
I am looking forward to the email allerts. Just a few questions, I would like to have it sent to my Pocket PC which is a different email than my subscription. Then intraday updates are they done at any certain intervals or just as the strenth and long/short signals dictate? Keep up the good work!
Jerry - Great post and thanks for sharing your method...one question/clarification about your method.
To make sure I am following you....are you saying you compare the IMS at close at the end of each day to the IMS at the close of the prior day. If the IMS has reversed direction you go long or short accordingly?
Thanks!
Collin
Hey Jerry,
I found you system interesting. I am going to paper trade it to see how it works. Thanks for the idea.
I have one question if you don't mind. Is there a particular reason you don't use stop orders?
Please let me know.
Thank you,
Statesman
Just curious to see how many people use an "exponential" / (componding) trading approach with any of the 4 IMS systems?
E.g. xTrend makes the best return (to date) yet the fewest points! So increasing your stake by say 20%+ each time would probably give you the best return of all 4 systems[?]...!
However I was surprised to see that xWave was by far the biggest winner (in terms of net points) despite being only the 3rd. best (of 4) in terms of average profit per trade [points]! So here perhaps using a more conservative/steady approach (same $ invested per trade) would give a better return c.t. compounding?
Hope this makes sense? - I am still learning (paper trading) after 2 months now.
Mark (UK).
Hello Jerry,
Interesting system. One question.
If the signal is long and the IMS is at 57, if you notice in the first few hours of the day, it goes down to 55 but then jumps back up to 58, would I be required to change direction two times or do I just rely on end of day numbers to make a directional move?
Thanks,
Ron
I think email alerts would be useful, but not as a replacement for the current system, maybe in line with the current system.
Hi All,
Great post Jerry. I have been experimenting with the same approach. Generally I am wary of going short unless that is the direction of a 38 EMA. That said I set my first stop at 35 points as that seems to get hit 97% of the time on entering the next day. Second level is 50 points followed by 100. Then I check out resistance and support levels and congestion areas. One question to your own approach . On the 20 March we ended the day with the IMS at 86 will you be placing a trade today the 21 to go long ?
Cheers
Ian
Hi Jerry,
Thanks for your post. I have a question. If your 50/75/100 profit targets are hit intraday and you close the existing trade do you then open a new position at the end of the day or do you stay out and wait for the signal to change before taking another position?
Greetings. I just joined and decided to use the Xtrend strategy. My reasoning was that I only have 5k and am trading with the YM Futures and need the high winrate until my capital builds.
Perhaps the higher profitability of the Xwave strategy can be mimicked through the Xtrend stategy with proper betsizing. The quest is a smooth upward equity curve :) To explain, a higher winrate makes it easier to step up to the plate with size!
Good Trading to us
RF
Hi traders, I am new to trading and have recently joined and have been paper trading since Jan 25th. Am I missing something or is it as good as it seems. I am diligent and follow the system to the book and I am in front. I am about to trade real $ but find it hard to find a broker that will open an account for $ 3000-$4000. They all want $10K to start off. I live in Australia and it is hard to try to set a system up. Any suggestions.
jerry, in backtesting your system it appears that on sept 19, 20, 21, 2006 you would have incurred heavy losses. am i missing something in your system? thanks- bob
All of the systems are ways to interpret the inherent indicator value of the IMS. I would like for it to be displayed in a format like it is currently to allow flexibility in how it is used along with any email notification or format.
Just had a moment of [rare!] inspiration...
What about someone doing a back-test on all 4 systems re: end result (after say 12 months or to date?) in terms of total $ gained using: -
1. Compounding profits/reducing losses?
2. Keeping the same punt for each trade regardless...?
3. Any other approach?
OK, I'll do it myself, I think...!
Mark (UK).
After backtesting all 4 systems and coming up with a verification plan, I'm wondering if it's possible to have all XSystems available to view or a choice of two XSystems at the same time. This allows me to use one against the other as an alternative filter system.
DT love your system. It really cuts away some of the unecessary noise in the market and provides a clear cut entry and exit; not to mention returns that most often dream about. Your systems have given me an opportunity to re-visit the Dow Jones.
Thanks heaps,
Robert
Jerry,
Have you experimented with ATR to set/vary your three targets with?
RF
For those experimenting with a profit target if you spreadbet and go long with a 40 point target the results are staggering. If you begin with a £1.00 per point stake until you lose and then £2.00 until the next loss and £3.00 and so on you can build a sizeable account in a relatively short period of time. In 2006 this system returned profits of £147000.00!
Woofer, why don't you use a CFD provider like IG Markets or CMC Markets. I think you only need $5000 to open an account with these guys, though I think other CFD providers can do it with as little as $2000.
Thanks for the feedback on my trading method. To clarify a couple of points that were asked about:
When making the decision to enter a new trade, I ignore the intraday flucuations of the IMS and wait until the end-of-day number is posted before taking action. On the other side of the coin, I will gladly use the intraday flucuations of the market to exit my position if my profit targets are hit. Once my targets are met, I will not re-enter another position until the IMS again changes to the opposite direction.
To Bob: your post of 3/21 has caused me to re-visit my backtest. In doing so, I noticed that the data source I used (Yahoo) has daily high and low numbers for the DJ index that are inconsitent with other sources. Has anyone else noticed this? Bob, what data source are you using? I have a feeling that Yahoo may be incorrect.
To Ian - per my trading rules, the last time I entered a long trade was 3/16 when IMS turned up. Profit was hit on 3/19, so I will remain flat until IMS turns back down (which looks like will happen today 3/26).
To RF - Haven't looked at ATR (Avg True Range?). How might that approach work?
Regards,
Jerry
I am new to trading futures and would like to know how people go about setting up stop losses. I would appreciate any advice or information. Thanks Tom
The XTrend system should have gone short on Mar 26 along with the others since the SMA 34 was below the SMA 55. Is that what you are using. Thanks for a very interesting and potentially profitable indicator.
MJ
Hey woofer - I'm in Australia too and would be interested if you get any replies. I'm kind of confused about margins required in accounts to trade e-mini futures for Dow. If you learn anymore would you please drop me a quick email at i.hate.turnip [at] gmail [dot] com.
I just opened an account and am ready to trade but don't know when to jump in, it seems like we are at an end to a short run, should I enter now or enter on the turn?
X-Trend Glitch...
Firstly, our sincere apologies - there was a glitch in the xTrend program which we identified within our program [thankfully sooner than later]...
As our members know, the xTrend is exactly the same as xWave, except it is filtered by a MasterTrend, whereby if the MT is UP then only LONG signals in the xWave are given and no short signals. Similarly, if the MT is DOWN then only SHORT signals in the xWave are given and no long signals. This is the basis of the xTrend as detailed in the quick-guide: www.insight.net/xTrend.htm
The glitch occurred in the last few days, whereby the auto-signal generation program did not track the "MT" as it should have and hence the Go Short signal was not published as it should have done according to the rules.
Nonetheless, many of our members went short despite the glitch because the xTrend rules did qualify for a Go Short - they simply followed the xWave, and then on the GO SHORT day in the xWave, checked the 34/55 MA [the MT] to qualify the short entry trade. We sincerely apologise once again for the glitch in our programming code - indeed, our programmers have assured a permanent fix on this. DT.
Thank you for your public explanation re the Xtrend glitch. My faith is restored ;-)
Almunecar
Dow Trader Re: X-Trend Glitch.
Just a suggestion to assist members following this system.
Why not plot the MT on the chart on the X-Trend page, so it is obvious that when a change of direction in the ims% is about to occur it is clearly evident whether the trade will be included in respect of the MT rule, or indeed not.
Lady Trader
Maybe we could have the 34/55 on the Dow chart.
Peter
I think you can increase chances of winning percentages by staying in short positions overnite, but considering getting out at end of day in long positions. In the current market environment, there is more risk of abrupt and significant short movements adverse to long positions than vice versa.
First i want to thank you DT for a great system i am using this system from last 1 year.
I want one favor from DT. If it is possible can you post details about the each system that how many long signals are profitable and how many short signals are profitable? I was just checking xWave and found that only one Long signal was in Loss.
This will give one more way to follow the signal based on the accuracy on Long and Short signal.
Thanks
DC
Hello!
May I ask if anyone has used the DT successfully via Spread Trading in the UK? If so, is it possible to share your experience/system and what signal was used, ie Trend, Basic, etc. It would appear that the DT could produce some good profits using this type of trading vehicle.
G'day all!
Is there anyone using this system from here in Australia that I can talk with via email?
Would appreciate any information!
Kind regards,
Chad
Hi woofer, I am in Australia as well and am about to sign up. Can you let me know what you find out re brokers please, as I have never had any dealings with them.
where is april 3rd on the chart. it is missing. yesterday it said buy-now its gone
DT,
This not necessarily for review by all but thought you might want to know that there is an error in the IMS for 4/03. That date is missing. We had go long signal yesterday 4/03. But that is not there today. Also, is there an email address where we can reach you to report glitches etc. my email address is rlsm@cctc.net. thanks.
Sincere apologies regarding the missing April 3rd data - this was an error reported yesterday from our data vendor - Somehow April 3rd
went off the radar for a little while causing confusion - April 3rd IMS is now back on//fixed. DT.
Hello,
Where can you view if the Master Trend is up or down? Thanks for your
help.
I just signed up and am new to trading the dow. I'm basically wondering what the best way to trade the system is. I have an account on TD Ameritrade. I have 100k in the account which is already invested in a stock that I'm holding for the long term.
So I have a good amount of buying power for the dow but it would be on margin. Will the mini contracts (not even sure if TDameritrade has them) minimize margin charges? I just don't want to be gettin raped on margin because I've done it in the past. Any help would be appreciated as I want to get started ASAP.
Hi all,
Re Jerry's System: Yes the Yahoo data is totally warped and with the 'real' data the system is much less profitable. eg: from 1 Jan 06 to 3 April 07, trading with a profit target of 50 points, your total profits would have been 1579 points, with 50 'hits' and 13 'misses' (79% strike rate). For 75-pt targets, the total would be 1697 pts with 42 hits and 21 misses (67%). These results can be improved by not trading when the IMS is between 40 and 65. In this case, trading with 50-point targets, the total would have been 1728 points (36 hits, 1 miss) and for 75-pt trades, total would have been 2235 points with 34 hits and 3 misses.
I've done similar calculations for the NDX and the results aren't hugely different - tading the NDX you make a few more points (relatively speaking to the Dow) but the proportion of hits v misses is slightly lower.
Cheers
Kreks
Any advice on placing stops? I usually stop loss at 5-10% of margin, which is ok for day-trading but not very flexible for overnight holds (like this system).
How do you set stops wide enough that the intraday whipsaws don't shake out the trade?
If you take profits during the day and the signal hasn't changed end of day, do you go back in or wait for a new signal?
Thanks!
What happens if you get stopped out and the current signal hasn't changed? Do you jump back in or wait for end of day?
For those of you using Yahoo for historical quotes, I found this on whilst researching...
"Short answer is that there are two different methods to calculate high and low prices for the index-Theoretical and Actual-and we choose to display the Theoretical high/low data in historical prices. The Theoretical Dow Jones Industrial Average assumes all index components hit their high or low at the same time during the day. At the end of the trading day, the daily highs for all 30 Dow components are used to calculate the index high for the day, and the same is performed for the index low."
Good Luck to all
Paper trading here in the US; woud prefer the cuurent graphic system opposed to an e-mail system. Checkng the signal at 3:30 EST seems to work and should not be compromised. I like the visual aspect too of being able to see the oscillator. Starting to trade real $'s. I'll keep you posted.
Steven
G'Day. Can anyone (or you Dow Trader) tell me if they are auto-trading any of the 4 strategies? I wish checking the webpage / email everyday was possible, but travelling to anologue destinations in a digital world is sometimes preclusive. I see the question has been posed before, but I have not seen an answer.
Alternatively, Dow Trader, do you envisage partnering with a broker to offer this service? I'd imagine there'd be others out there who'd also appreciate such an arrangement.
In my view, it only compliments a sound systematic service such as yours.
Best Regards, DLS
Question for KREKS:
can you explain the 40/65 IMS rule please.
Jim
Hi, I just wanted to know if there are some clients in Spain, so that we can share experiences and views.
Nacho
I would like to add my desire to have the MT shown on the X-Trend screen if it is reasonable to do so. Also I would still like to see the screens that I go to at 3:30pm each day whether you implement e-mail notifications or not. Thanks for your system.
Kyle
Bill said
to Anonymous on March 24 6:23am re.experimenting with 40pt.target.
Are you talking long trades only where you take your 40pt.profit and wait for the next long signal or am i reading you wrong.
Bill
RE Kreks comment on Jerrys system.Yahoo has warped data but I do not trade the cash market. I trade the DJ Minis.How does that warp the minis?
Looking for a source of DJ Mini future prices
Thanks to Kreks and others for confirming the problem with Yahoo data. Seems crazy to me that they would choose to display "theoretical" high/low rather than actual. Kreks, I will definitely look into your idea of filtering out the trades between 40-65 IMS .. thanks.
Jerry
kreks,
most interesting work...if the target were 25 points on Jerry's system on those days when the IMS was 40-65, would that effect the results?
RF
I know a lot has been asked / said re stops. Just to keep it simple........has anyone opened an account with say $5000 or $10000 and if so - what would you set your first trade stop at?
Thanks in advance for any replies / help :)
does anyone use this for Dow Mini futures (YM) ? if so, what ticker is being used- ymm7? can dowtrader be followed for mini dow futures?
Phil
I use a 100 point trailing stop when trading the Mini-Dow or the $10 Dow going long or short. Using a 1% trailing stop at the current Dow Futures level would also work. I like to follow the oscillator and trade for a day or two - in and out with 20 contracts
for constant profit. Works very well here in the US.
Delayed Mini-Dow and $10 Dow quotes available on www.cbot.com under "Market Data" Tab
Hi Y'all,
First, I'd like to thank DT for a great system. I think the secret to successfully profit from it is dicipline. I have finally over come my inhibitions and bad habits (bad trading habits..still working on the them) and have recently jumped in. Anyway I'm spreadbetting the Dow (or wall street as they call it in spreadbetting platforms)and glad to learn I'm not the only one.
I would like to second DC's request made on 1st April. My suggestion would be to add another column, say at the change of each signal, indicating whether at the end of each signal if it was a loss or a profit and by how many points. Something like have the points in different colours for profit or loss would be very effective. This would make it easier especially for new members to tell at a glance which of the four systems would be most suitable for them. Hope it makes sense.
It would be great if you would consider to add this information. Otherwise happy trading everyone!!!
Cheers
Divoire
Greetings!
I'm greener than grass. Exposed to options, but never traded real $$$. Don't know much about futures so, more than a little timid about signing up...but intrigued. Any suggestions for best sources of info. to get me up to speed quickly..or will DT info. do that after I sign up?
Hoping to be the 2007 DT poster boy for "Anybody can do this!"
--Steve N.
DT Bulletin - Saturday April 28th 2007: We have now reached our desired quota/membership level for the dowTrader. Having excessive members following the same strategy may compromise the quality of the signals.
Additionally, in order to preserve a first-rate level of support for our valued members, and invest our time/resources on our clickcharts project [free charting, trend analysis, signals], we will no longer accept new orders for the dowTrader at this time.
Existing members can rest assured they will receive full access to the DT service: xWave, xTrend, xStop and xBasic, throughout their subscription period.
For more information on the clickcharts project launching May 2007, please refer to our home page: insight.net
DT
To all those who enquired about my analysis of jerry's system, where I filtered out trades that were between IMS values of 40 and 65: simply, this means that, if the IMS is between 40 and 65 (or 35 and 65, if you want to be more cautious on the long side) then you don't trade. Otherwise, if the IMS is less than 40 or greater than 65 and it changes direction, you enter, and the stats are pretty good for smallish profit targets. I can't post my spreadsheet here unfortunately
BUT - rememeber, the sample is tiny - only 16 months! We don't know how this system would perform in alternate markets.
I don't know if this works for futures as i trade CFDs, which mirror the realtime value (sort of) of the indices.
Dear DT,
Will current members be able to renew their membership, or will this system be replaced with your new "clickcharts" system?
DT Update - Sunday April 29th 2007:
Current DT members, please rest assured the DT signals will be continually available to you thru your subscription.
In addition, from January 2008, the IMS will continue to be published through a secure area within clickcharts, and accessible free-of-charge, TO CURRENT DT MEMBERS ONLY - no additional subscription fees will apply, period!
All other services [clickcharts] will be 100% free, open to all, encompassing trend analysis, charting, stock-scans, a powerful strategy 'backtesting' engine inc money-management variables we are developing in beta right now, and [later this year] intra-day scans/alerts on the top 500 US stocks and top 250 UK stocks, as well as the major indexes.
CC will cover all UK, US, Canadian stocks & indexes and major forex pairs. This is a significant offering unlike any other financial/charting website. All free. Naturally, CC requires extensive resources and a serious time commitment.
Happy Trading - DT
Dear Dowtrader,
Will the IMS, oscillator, graphics and chart still be available in this secure area within clickcharts come 2008? Please make these features a part of this new system. The IMS alone is not always a good indicator - the oscillator is a better indicator at times. Your current system and set-up works extremely well, We, as members, would hate to lose it. I would have no regrets having to repay a fee year after year to keep things as they are currently. Please seriously consider this request. I finally found someting that works... in its current state!
Great job DT, more power to your elbow.
Thanks to DT - it is great stuff and I have done very well in 2007.
Kreks,
Thank you for sharing.
What if your in a trade and the next changing signal is between 40-65....? and you did not get your 50 points yet? Do you ignore it and do not exit as it is not a valid change....
RF
DT,
First thanks for a great system. Have had good luck so far. My subscription is set to expire in a few weeks. Please calm the concern of the DT community who are in a similar position, and wish to keep access after our subsription expires. I'm sure that like me, many would gladly continue to pay to keep access to this signal. Thanks for a great system and looking forward to see what click charts has to offer.
Thanks again,
Tim
Hello DT,
I have a couple of questions.
I was just curious back in March you said you were going to implement email alerts to all the members. Has this been done and if not is it something that will be in use soon? 2nd- as far as your clickcharts website once this rolls out will you be phasing out the Dow Trader site for good ? or are we grandfathered with the subscription just as long as we renew are subscription. Please advise.
By the way its an EXCELLENT SYSTEM! no exception.
Thanks ! CZ
When everyone speaks of the oscillator which oscillator are you talking about? Sounds like some are having good success with using an oscillator in conjuction with the IMS...I would like to hear more detail on how this is being used and particularly which oscillator?
My subscription ends in August will I
be able to renew subscription so I can have access til January when the member site is available in click charts?
Greetings,
Question for all you seasoned traders out there.. How much credence should I give to news, events, earnings, etc when trading. Should I try to use them to help time entries and exits, or completely ignore them and strictly follow the indicator? I'm thinking it's the latter, but the news headlines always make me anxious.
DT,
I know you guys are busy working on cc, and am looking forward to using it. But, I had a suggestion for your consideration..
I think this comments section is extremely valuable to all of us. The only issue is that with the 500+ comments in here now it's getting difficult to follow a conversation thread. Is it possible to move this section to a forum with threading and search capabilities? I believe there are many free ones available.
Just a thought.
Thanks again for the great work!
Gil.
Hello
Thanks! DT for your system
I have tried so many other methods and I find myself relying on the DT system.
Would someone explain to me which system works best in the summer months of which they say is choppy
thanks!!!
Hi DT.
Great job so far and am making money and that is what counts. I have a question. My subscription ends around Aug this year.Do I need to renew after that as I see you are offering members services free from Jan 2008. Just wanted you to clarify for the benefit of those who fall in my category.
I'm new to all this and I will be using spread betting to trade the Dow. If I have a bank of £2000 I will need to set my own stop loss will I not? How would you calculate how many pips away to set the stop loss please or have I totally missed the point? Thanks, Nick
Oscillator question
On 25 and 29/04 anonymous mentioned about using oscillator (volume one?) - I'd be appreciate to give me some info how to read/use it? Mariusz
DT Update: Sunday May 6th 2007...
To the extensive members who have provided appreciative feedback, we would like to take this opportunity to thank you for your support and constructive input. Rest assured, the IMS will be available to you as long as we are here...
Just a quick note to clarify current memberships...
If you are a current member, and your membership expires BEFORE January 1st 2008, then email us with your username [email], password and order ID number.
Once this is received/checked to ensure you are a valid member, your subscription will be extended to 01/01/2008.
After this date, you will be able to access the IMS etc., via a free-for-life, secure area for DT 'members only', which will reside within clickcharts.com
We may also run a FREE, secure 'live trading blog' in 2008, for DT members, to support xWave signals, so you can trade alongside us.
Keep well... DT
Hi DT
I was just wondering how you can afford to run such a tremendous service at no cost and why in the world you would do such a thing!?
Not that I'm complaining, I'm extremely satisfied with the current service... was just wondering...?
Michael
Michael,
We will not charge for our service - period. This means no limited times, special offers, part-free or any other gimmick. We are not even interested in your email address or any other contact info [everyone is welcome]. It is absolutely free always [including DT which will be free to all current members].
This is - for want of a better phrase - an 'affordable challenge' for us. We have a number of highly successful, totally unrelated businesses and global property interests beyond this venture so this is certainly not rooted in making money from individual subscriptions/fees...
Rather, it is a challenge, to become a leading web-portal encompassing everything that traditional 'subscription/fee' based financial software providers 'sell'. Ours will be totally free and 100% access-anywhere/web-based, inc future releases of powerful intra-day analysis/alerts software we are presently developing.
This is an exciting, adventurous time for us, far more rewarding than mere dollars and cents. And who knows, one day we could become the next Google, the No 1 portal, dedicated to financial markets. If we do, marvellous - if not, what the heck - it'll still have been a great journey!
Best regards - DT
Hey DT i admire your spirits and appreciate what you guys are doing. I must say its a very rare thing to find around these days and thats me saying "WELLDONE GUYS"
The dow moved against recomendation -1.11% today, I'm wondering why there wasn't a signal to "go short", from a long position?
With reference to the post: "The dow moved against recomendation -1.11% today, I'm wondering why there wasn't a signal to "go short", from a long position?"...
Response: The 1% stop is based on the original entry Dow only [25th April @ 13089 - 1%], not 'trailed' each day thereafter as is assumed in the post. Only if the Dow moves below the 1% stop of the original entry [13089 minus 1% = 12958] does a fresh Go Short signal become posted. Currently the system will remain Long until either this stop is breached or the IMS moves above 65 and then starts to drop. This is all clearly stated in the rules: www.insight.net/xWave.htm
Hope this is all clear - DT
Hi DT
Would you be so kind and give us an update when the new website will go live.
I am sincerely looking forward using the new website.
Kind regards
Danie
DT, I just wanted to commend you on the IMS indicator. After observing it now for over half a year, it just keeps amazing me in it's accuracy, compared with other oscillators, and compared with other Dow timing systems out there.
This is the best, and I really like that it can be used as a creative tool.
Thank you for keeeping it available in the future, subscription based or not.
Peter
Please don't lose the DT system as it now exists with oscillator and IMS% format inleiu of a day trading DT sytem - Why not have both :)
Well...it's been a while since I last commented!.....my belief is that despite the IMS indicator around "30" and perhaps rising...anyone long in this market should seriously look at protecting their profits from today.As from my last comment which was correct in calling a serious drop very soon..."a break of the channel" on 27th February which was not posted?....we are about to witness heavy selling again...so be careful!!!...happy trading and thank you Dow Trader.
Latest Update on Clickcharts.com
The BETA version is ready to roll, we are presently doing some final checks and will work into the weekend to ensure the portal runs as well on Mac's/Firefox browsers as well as IE. Deployment will likely take place in the next 2-3 days when the BETA version will be launched. Keep checking www.clickcharts.com - Rgds... DT
Thanks! forfarian I believe we should be careful now too
It will be interesting on how the DT will signal when the drop starts
DT Update RE: Clickcharts.com
We have completed final data tests late last night, and are ready to roll out Version 1 [BETA] today.
Our vision is to create a completely free portal, with many phases planned for release over the next few months and beyond - a single-minded vision to become the No 1 portal for technical analysts everywhere, who need access to productive charts, quotes, innovative indicators (beyond the industry norm), scanners and easy-to-use backtest functionality, encompassing end-of-day, intra-day and real-time analysis, covering all the major financial exchanges throughout the world.
Our service [just like Google, Yahoo, MSN, etc] will be 100% web based, always free - we don't ask for nor do we need your email address, signups, subscriptions etc. Current technology, the aspx platform, faster internet service providers, and mobile/PDA platforms, now allows this vision to manifest.
You may start using clickcharts.com [BETA] within a few hours when we go live. Let us know how we can improve it right here on this blog. Additional blogs and a dedicated forum will be introduced for CC in a few weeks.
Best regards - DT
Clickcharts looking good - any data feed/symbol for CBOT mini Dow? I Spread Trade this instrument and whilst I realise it tracks the DJIA I would like the volumes detail and actual prices specifically on this instrument for a more accurate assesment. Coupled with DOW TRADER this is going to be a winner. Appreciate the stock tips. I understand that a lot of development work goes into the charting - Would you not consider Pivot point overlays? As an aside - With just clickvolume and dowtrader I have managed a really good May month 26 Trades - 1 Loss - 25 Wins netting me 5 times may day job salary. Could certainly have set up bigger leveraged trades but - Rule 1 - Never be greedy. Thanks Folks, You Rock!
message for Dave:
Re: your post of sept. 19, 2006
Are you still trading options of the DIA Diamond Trust in the same way as you were then? If so, how's it working? Have you changed anything in the way you're trading now versus back then.
Thanks,
Clay
Hi Guys,
Have been a member for a few months now and really loving your concepts. Clickcharts is also showing excellent signs of being a valuable portal. Are you thinking about expanding on the number of overlays? I think as a minimum 3 is preferred. Also any chance of including Directional Movement (ADX) indicator.
One last thing, would love to see the ASX200 as well... is that possible?.
Thanks and gr8 wrk.
Seem to find trouble getting sleep - ideas a-plenty my mind is buzzing... will be working with my programmers this w/e [again!] adding around nine additional scan reports for launch in the coming weeks - including top 10 'gap' plays each day, 'volume spike' trend trading opportunities, and volatility plays, amongst others. All free of course. We are also looking at adding a free service for 'covered call' plays.
Quick thanks for the feedback from the many individuals utilizing clickcharts.com at this [very] early stage, we are only about 10% done - it is by far a runaway success, more so than we could have ever imagined. Keep the feedback coming, we need to hear more. I am intrigued by the idea of developing a 'portfolio championship' with actual end of season prizes, and also a system review page for investigating & reviewing existing systems on the market - seperate the few genuine ones from the abundance of chaff out there - let me think more on this. Keep well - DT
Hi Thomas M,
Would you care to give an example of a trade where you used DOWTRADER in conjunction with Clickvolume to produce such impressive trade results?
Keep it going,
Don
Just wanted to add some more food for thought (like you need anymore of that...LOL).
good vs bad systems on the market would be an excellent addition... some of the better ones I have are Instant Profits (Bill Poulus) and ShortSwingTrading. In addition, I was thinking that since I used 3 different systems at any one time it would be nice to be able to save chart templates somehow, sort of like your own personal watchlist with predefined chart settings... Also, can the timeframe be changed to cater for those who trade on 5,10,15 etc chart intervals???
Keep uo the gr8 work.
Dow Trader ,
congratulations on ClickChart. I can see using it very profitably in the very near future. I am also looking forward to the future Forex charts.
Thomas M,
would you mind giving us an insight of your trading system?
How do you use clickvolume?
Thanks
Does the last 10 trading days consisting of doji and spinning tops give anyone cause for concern other than myself.
I'm curious as to what some are doing in terms of stop loss placement.
Low volatility periods such as this are usually followed by periods of much higher volatility.
Best Wishes and Good Trading to All,
Nick
The charts are great.
I would like to see the symble with a designation as to which market it trades under such as NASD or S&P and maybe a mark showing if it is Optionable like a small "o" or an "x".
Thanks ED
DT,
don't leave the Forex out of your plans.
AC
HiDT,
Have been a long term member of Dow Trader and have been using successfully. I love your new free charts which are very user-friendly. I am now based in Taiwan which is 12hrs behind Eastern time. I would like to know if your charts are being updated after market-close or 30 minutes before market-close. For serious traders it would be extremely advantageous if the charts are updated 30 minutes to market-close as they can enter before a major move occurs the follow day. I will be moving to Canada soon and will be able to take full advantage of this feature.
Thanks
JC
Hi DT. Thanks for a great service. I know their are a million things you can do with your new clickcharts, but to add to the suggestions: As well as the 3 best trades for the day to go 'long', the 3 best 'short' candidates would be very useful. I know everyone doesn't short stock, but anyone using options would want to have a mix of Put candidates as well as Calls. Especially if (when) we have the next Bear market (which some are predicting soon?) to have high probability short trades would be appreciated.
Hello, question for Tomas M.
What r u refferring to when talking about Clickvolume?
Thx
And compliment to the DT and his team!!
Max
Dow Trader, I have checked clickcharts.com and they are impressive but I will sorely miss the IMS signals that have worked so well with the use of RYDEX funds switches.
I wouold appreciate and trading indicators that approximate the IMS
Seems like Dowtrader WaveX is upside down. Market is plummeting and the IMS is heading away from a reversal. Would be understandable if IMS was heading towards a reversal when the market was going up, but that wasn't the case either.
Anyone have an insight. We have lost 210 points in the last 2 days and the signal shows no signing of changing.
Re the upcoming "close out deadline" for the DOW - just wondering what most people do - Do you actually close your position and then start a new trade after the deadline? If you do this - do you put your stop 100 points (or 1%) below your new entry (if buying) or do you put the stop back where it was originally when entering the previous trade.
OR - do you just ROLL over the trade?
I have been a member for two months and want to express how grateful I am for these folks. Thank you all. Clickcharts RULE!!
Someone asked about replacing hisstop where it was when entering the new months contract? well i would think the whole idea is to keep profit made and not to loose it, so placing stop at the initial stop wouldn't be a good idea rather i would think 1% from the entry point for the new months contract would be just fine. i stand to be corrected. Cheers people and Great Great job DT.
tqhsecdTo anonymous who lost 210 points in two days between June 5, 6, 7. You should wait to trade new signal.....if you jump in on a signal, you should do it when IMS and oscillator are trending up and not down. Oscillator trending down
is a clue to go short. Congrads on being able to stomach a 210 point drop - I'd be out at 100 point drop LOL. Okay, if you stayed long from June 7 to June 15 - you'd be up 372 points!
In response to the post on June 6 - Anonymous
This is take straight from the quick guide - it does not get any more clearer...
IMS was not over 65 so NO GO SHORT signal was given and since you are long you stay long until the NEXT GO SHORT!!!
Point 5 "I believe" relates to the 1% move against the ENTRY PRICE - Not the current price (i.e yesterdays close)
-----------------------------------
For the IMS xWave strategy, we have 5 simple rules:
1. If the IMS is below 35 and starts to rise, we have a "Go Long" signal.
2. If the IMS is above 65 and starts to drop, we have a "Go Short" signal.
3. Once we "Go Long" we "Stay Long" until the next "Go Short" signal.
4. Once we "Go Short" we "Stay Short" until the next "Go Long" signal.
5. In addition, we check the Dow at the end of each day. If the Dow has moved against us by 1% or more at this time, then we will automatically receive a 'reverse' signal, whereby: If we were 'long' we receive a fresh 'Go Short' signal. If we were 'short', we receive a fresh 'Go Long' signal.
Great system DT and please make sure you keep it active. I am interested in what other indicators memebers use in conjunction with IMS to make succussful trades.
Again thanks for a great system.
xWave Trading System
Update Record
Date-stamped By Google Blogger
No: 01 JAN 03 2006: LONG @ 10847
No: 02 JAN 12 2006: SHORT @ 10962
No: 03 JAN 25 2006: LONG @ 10709
No: 04 FEB 03 2006: SHORT @ 10793
No: 05 FEB 10 2006: LONG @ 10919
No: 06 FEB 21 2006: SHORT @ 11069
No: 07 MAR 06 2006: LONG @ 10958
No: 08 MAR 20 2006: SHORT @ 11274
No: 09 MAR 31 2006: LONG @ 11109
No: 10 APR 24 2006: SHORT @ 11336
No: 11 MAY 05 2006: LONG @ 11577
No: 12 MAY 10 2006: SHORT @ 11642
No: 13 MAY 23 2006: LONG @ 11098
No: 14 JUN 05 2006: SHORT @ 11048
No: 15 JUN 15 2006: LONG @ 11015
No: 16 JUN 21 2006: SHORT @ 11079
No: 17 JUN 29 2006: LONG @ 11190
No: 18 JUL 05 2006: SHORT @ 11151
No: 19 JUL 18 2006: LONG @ 10799
No: 20 JUL 28 2006: SHORT @ 11219
No: 21 AUG 14 2006: LONG @ 11097
No: 22 AUG 23 2006: SHORT @ 11297
No: 23 AUG 29 2006: LONG @ 11369
No: 24 OCT 09 2006: SHORT @ 11857
No: 25 OCT 16 2006: LONG @ 11980
No: 26 NOV 21 2006: SHORT @ 12321
No: 27 NOV 30 2006: LONG @ 12221
No: 28 DEC 12 2006: SHORT @ 12315
No: 29 DEC 15 2006: LONG @ 12445
No: 30 JAN 22 2007: SHORT @ 12477
No: 31 JAN 24 2007: LONG @ 12621
No: 32 JAN 26 2007: SHORT @ 12487
No: 33 JAN 31 2007: LONG @ 12621
No: 34 FEB 06 2007: SHORT @ 12666
No: 35 FEB 14 2007: LONG @ 12741
No: 36 FEB 21 2007: SHORT @ 12738
No: 37 MAR 02 2007: LONG @ 12114
No: 38 MAR 13 2007: SHORT @ 12075
No: 39 MAR 19 2007: LONG @ 12226
No: 40 MAR 26 2007: SHORT @ 12469
No: 41 APR 03 2007: LONG @ 12510
No: 42 APR 11 2007: SHORT @ 12484
No: 43 APR 13 2007: LONG @ 12612
No: 44 APR 24 2007: SHORT @ 12953
No: 45 APR 25 2007: LONG @ 13089
No: 46 JUN 20 2007: SHORT @ 13489
Trade #46 Is Currently Open
The Results [so far]...
TOTAL COMPLETED TRADES: 45
Profit @$25/Pt: $100,650.00
Thanks! Dow trader for the Results on the x-wave Keep it coming!!
Dear DT:
Re: your mail dated 22/06/07 on System X results.
I think that says it all, the results speak for themselves. I have being a member for 8 months now, and I follow the X-System only. Yes it can have a few losing trades, but if one is not prepared to accept a loss sometimes, then maybe trading is the correct place for one's money. This system is clearly a winning system, and I for one will continue to follow it religously, please keep up the great work and keep this system X live.
Shane.
Dear DT:
Your brilliant IMS indicator is a basic factor towards my financial freedom, So I really wish you continue offering this excellent service even with twice it’s annual fee for at least the coming 30 years (just don’t want to be so greedy if i ask for more years)
Soliman
Hi there fellow traders. I have been demo trading the signals for the last few months and am VERY impressed with the results so far. I am getting ready to do live soon.
Re stop loss......I have ALWAYS used them in my FOREX trading. I have noticed with futures and CFD's there is a "stop loss" and a "guaranteed stop loss." This "GSL" has a fee which can add up a bit. Do most of you, who use a stop loss, use the guaranteed stop loss or just the normal stop loss? The normal one seems to be okay except if a price spikes and your exit may lag a bit, while the GSL is of course "guaranteed" at your selected price but as I said, can start costing a bit (if I have read the dealer information correctly). I also know that some of you might say that no fee is too great for a guarantee. Thanks in advance for any feedback.
Mick in Australia.
Hi Mick,
Re - GSL. Check your broker fine print again. The CFD provider I use here in Aus increases the opening spread to cater for the "fee". The only time they charge a $$ fee "so to speak" is on CFD's for shares.
As for using stop loss, I always use at least 1% for the DT signals, so far it's working just fine. I've had a few spikes and since my position size is not risking more than 2-3% of my capital I can live with a stop slightly worse than I expected. I suspect that when I'm trading as per the DT guide (increase position size gradually until your trading $60per pnt) then I'll seriously consider the GSL.
Hope that helps.
hello
dow trader you the man as we say in the states.i finally found what i been looking for.im very happy to be aboard.you have the best system out there hands down.keep it up and congrats on clickcharts.
bob
any plans to add a email notification of trend changes?
DT the 16/7/2007 is missing, please sort it out
What has happened to the IMS for 16 July 2007. It seems to have been skipped?
Hello,
I would like to say thank you very much for the service you provide. I for one have profited from this experience. I do have a couple of questions for you. First, today 7/17 the wave chart is missing the information from 7/16 and I believe the IMS was at 78. Today we have an IMS that is at 43 and I believe we should have a go short signal. Second, I notice some days the dow information regarding high s and lows are not correct. Any comments would be appreciated. Again I am very happy with the service
Re: Missing Data 16th July - Please rest assured we are aware of this issue. It is bad timing due to the fact my programmers are presently away on a [well deserved] 7 day vacation. I have tracked them down this morning and they will try and rectify the issue as a matter of urgency [hopefully today]. We are on top of it. Kind regards - DT
That is great DT.
I am very glad you are still on top of things.
I trade your core indicator for the past few months adding it to my own swing trading method with great success.
Good news - Just received word the missing IMS (16/7) issue has been resolved. There was a problem with our incoming intra-day data [price spike error] which temporarily puts the IMS on 'hold'.
In any case our position remains 'Long' the Dow, and will change to Short only if the IMS drops from above 65, or hits the 1%stop from the original entry point.
Normally, any glitch in the IMS system is resolved within a few hours at most - however all three programmers are away right now - but I am happy to note they have backup/contingencies in place thank goodness.
Upon their return work will continue on clickcharts.com - we are now adding intraday data [quotes & chart updating every 15 mins throughout the day for all stocks), plus a stockRating system which gives each stock a score out of 10, with 10/10 being a 100% technical-buy.
We will also provide the Top 3 daily 100%-Technical-Buy setups, as well as 'shorting' opportunities, covered call picks/tips and a full traders forum for discussing various issues, including independent testing of marketed trading systems by outside vendors to verify it is (or is not) everything they say it is.
In Jan 2008 (or earlier) we will also add a color coded Dow Chart reflecting the xWave (Green=Long, Red=Short). So IMS will always be there, possibly additional ones developed for the S&P, Nasdaq 100, FTSE 100 and Russell 2K. We are also working closely with our intra-day data providers to see if we can implement an IMS for forex (major pairs only: crosses between Pound, Dollar, Euro and Yen).
All in all, once all of the above is implemented (August 2007) and then some, we aim to become the Number One Free stock charting/analysis provider out there.
Keep well - DT.
any plans to add a email notification of trend changes?
Thanks Berniew,
Thanks for the input mate. Further searching HAS found a broker here in Austraia that does add a few pips for a GSL. Lookin' forward to goin' live - BRING IT ON!!!!!!
Mick in Australia
Just want to give you a thumbs up and hope all your endeavours with clickcharts go as per what you have planned.
I have been having an enjoyable run so far and hope to keep up with it. Thank you for such a powerful yet simple system.
I spreadbet in the UK and the secret is to have a good money management scheme.
Great service. Is there a plan possibly decrease the lag time on the IMS indicator? I notice that it update until after 10 EST, and is about 20 min behind. I know real time is not a possiblity, but a ten minute lag would seem to be better. Especially when the market gaps down like today. The market was down 80+ pts when the first short indicator was published.
To KREPS or anyone who knows the answer to this question: In Krep's April 10 post regarding "Jerry's system", reference was made to the "real" data that can be used to backtest ideas. I am aware that CBOT sells "real" historical data for a very high purchase price. Does anyone know where I can access free historical data containing Dow e-mini daily hi/low prices? Bill R.
Dear DT,
Is the Real Time IMS 30mins delayed?
Eg. Friday 20th July, IMS switched to "Go Short" at 9:40am.
-- DJ was 13944.20 at 09:40am. --
But I only received this update at 10:10am, 30 mins delayed.
-- DJ was 13896.50 at 10:10am. --
Missed approx 47.7 pts.
I've set the dowtrader page to auto refresh every 10mins during regular trading hour from 9.30am to 5.00pm everyday. But I always get the 1st refresh from dowtrader at 10.00am and same goes to rest of 10min updates. They were all 30mins delayed.
Do I have to do anything to get the real time update? Thanks DT.
And DT, will all existing members be able to access IMS real time intraday 10min update after 31,Dec,2007? Or just the EOD IMS reading?
Thanks DT for your system. Knowing that you will be extending your services for free. But I am willing to continue paying to subscribe to your INVALUABLE service, especially the DOW IMS real time update.
Keep it up and wishing you Great Success.
Thanks again to DT and your team.
Allan Chan
Singapore
Dear DT and fellow traders,
Most if not all of us are convinced by the performance of the IMS.
Are you concerned that publicly publishing the IMS would compromise its validity/performance? If so, would you consider keeping the IMS private and allowing current members to renew their membership?
I for one would be happy to pay to renew my membership if the IMS would remain private.
Keeping the IMS private would not prevent you from publishing other very useful tools on http://www.clickcharts.com/ and would almost guarantee the future strength of the IMS.
Much respect for developing the IMS.
Ara
Is there any way we can veiw the xwave page using a GPRS mobile phone so we can check periodically for direction changes in the ims? I've noticed that many people have asked if it's possible to have a text warning of changes in the ims and guess this would not be possible because of cost, but if we could check ourselves via a mobile? Just a thought. Thanks.
I think google finance uses real data.
Is there a way you can consider developing a version of FTSE-Trader as well? This will be for people that prefer trading FTSE instead for DOW.
Well-done and kind regards,
To Bill R... hi, i use OpenTick for my data feed (free) and NinjaTrader for my charting, also free. i'm happy to have found OpenTick because i used to pay over $100/month to eSignal for basically the same thing.
If possible, is there any chance of making the IMS available for the TradeStation platform (*.ELD)?
tia
Hi fellow DT followers,
Ditto to all of the previous comments relating to the membership for DT. Please, please keep DT to a membership basis. Also, Has anyone noticed the great bearish divergence that the IMS gives???
Cheers,
BEAUTIFUL run south we are having. What a trade!!! I'm happy - and I'm still only paper trading LOL
Dear Dow Trader,
You have a very good system that does a great job at identifying pivot points. However, frequently you might be having a profitable swing only to see it disappear on the last day before the switch. The trick is to stay in the trade as long as possible before you start giving up your profit. This has not been an easy task. Either I leave to much on the table or quickly watch it fade leading up to the final moments before the switch. To make this system go from a great system to a truly sensational system is to let your customers know exactly when to switch. If you could possibly notify your customers with some sort of alert would certainly be the ultimate advantage.
Best regards,
Ron
DT, I am very impressed with the IMS! The results certainly speak for themselves over the 18+ months that it's been in action. Thank you for your generosity in extending our memberships, free of charge. My own implementation of the IMS has been shaky, and I haven't yet been patient enough to leave things alone and let the system work, which has cost me... It's so simple, it's hard to leave it alone!
In response to Bill R. from 7/20, you may be able to get the data you are looking for from your brokerage. I also have been looking for the historical data and can't bring myself to pat for it from CBOT. I was very happy to discover that my brokerage, Xpresstrade offers the historical data. I'm working on compiling the actual Dow Mini historical data, overlayed with the IMS signals to determine a minimum points gain per swing. As Jerry noted in his post, reducing hte volatility or drawdown of a position can be a very important factor for the futures trader.
Thanks very much to Annonymous on 7/26 about opentick, it looks very promising and FREE!
I also wanted to share a strategy that I'm using to help improve accuracy in my own trading, which Ron addressed on 8/01. For Dow Mini traders, you'll have to pick a price and IMS reading that you are comfortable with. For example, a conservative approach would be if the IMS reaches 65%, put in a trailing stop order for say 30 points. The price can fluctuate freely for most of the trend and thereby not stopping you out early. Once you put in your trailing stop, you lock in your profits for the last part of the trend.
Another way to do this is to pick a conservative points gain per trend. As Jerry suggested, 50 or 75 points. You can set an "alert trigger order" (ATO) with your brokerage. This will allow the Dow mini to fluctuate freely until it hits your trigger price. When your alert trigger is activated, you can have a trailing stop order waiting and ready to be activated for, say 20, or 30 points, or whatever point spread you want.
If your not familiar with placing a trailing stop order, in the price field of your order form you type -00020 with the order type being trailing stop. This example is for a long position to exit 20 points shy of a peak, whick is a reasonable price to keep you from stopping out randomly and still get a reasonable exit price.
Trailing stops can work in the opposite direction also, as a stop exit or to limit your short position. Just use a -00020 to allow your exit price to follow a falling position and hopefully get out at a better price.
I'll post again in a few days with actual mini Dow futures prices overlayed on the IMS signals. This will give some minimum gain prices for traders who want 90% or better trading accuracy.
Happy trading
-Corey H.
To Corey H looking forward to the overlay Dow futures and IMS
Keep the ideas and stratgies coming
Just to let everyone know - we are now live with 'intraday' data available on all US [NYSE, Nasdaq & Amex] stocks at www.clickcharts.com - the site also provides 'news' items specific to any stock requested so users can discover fundamental strengths/reasoning within technical trends. Coming next - Stock 'Ratings', providing technical analysis scores ranging from '0' [100% Bearish] to '10' [100% Bullish] on all US/UK/Canadian stocks and major indexes, plus the daily 'top 3' stock picks based on 10/10 [100% Bullish] ratings - Today's top rated stock [LEN] is flying right now, up over 7.5% since it was signalled last night. BRKL is also up over 5% - these are some great trading opportunities we are becoming accustomed to - all free.
Best regards - DT
Thanks again DT for the great IMS system. With the wipsaw we experienced on the up leg this past week, I am wondering if the "1%" rule is not optimal in these times of higher volatility. Even though the market is not extreme by historical measures, is much more volatile than at any time during the development and use of the IMS? Should the fixed 1% loss actually be variable depending on some measure of the volatility at that time eg if 1% under previous conditions, if Vol is double, then a 2% loss before reverse would apply? I know you want to keep the system simple, and sticking with a losing trade is difficult, but much of our profit from the down leg was wiped out by the two reverses on the way back up.
Thanks again. David (Australia)
To Cory H.
Thanks for your recent post. I am embarassed to admit that I, too, am an EXPRESSTRADE customer, but had no idea that they provided historical data on the dow emini. I'm playing around with it at the moment. I'm one of those looking for a 90% win factor. I can't wait to see your overlay that you are working on. The IMS provided by this site has wonderful possibilities...probably even more than DowTrader envisioned when he created it. All it needed was the creative ideas of users like we find on this blog. Everyone, keep your ideas coming.
Bill R.
Once again the IMS is right on the money. Excellent calls once again. I don't believe this to be a fluke.
in 2008 will members have the same screen to look at to make trades(ie..wavex) or will we have to go to the new page and set up the information??
Hello everyone, I put together the Dow mini contract prices with the IMS signals. I'm still working my way backward, but I have about 5 months of data completed. The contract prices I used are all "front month" contracts including rolling into a new contract in the middle of a trade, when the IMS trade signals extend beyond the expiration of a contract.
To correct myself, there's a mistake in my last post about using a trailing stop in a short position. You would use +00020 and not -00020. Sorry.
Back to the good stuff... I used the end of day DT signal with the historical futures prices for the Dow mini to:
A) Verify the performance of the IMS when trading Dow mini futures,
B) Determine if there is a more conservative approach to limit losses, and
C) Try and capitalize on some of the price fluctuations, whether they be intra-day or over the trade.
Backtesting can seem a little too “shoulda’, coulda’, woulda’”, if you know what I mean, so I have to keep that in mind when looking at this data. Also, using backtesting to come up with ways to tweak the system has its risks. The DT/IMS system is so simple that complicating it by putting it inside another scheme may not work at all if the scheme is too rigid.
Using the XWAVE Signals for this specific date range: 3/26/2007-8/15/2007
By entering the trade with no stop loss (you could use a 2.3% stop loss) and using a stop limit of 40 points, you end up with this:
Using a 40 point stop limit:
Winning trades:
14 of 15 - 93% accuracy
Points gained overall:
447 * $5/p contract = $2235
Losing trade and consecutive loss: 1 trade @ 113 pts
Using XWave Signals:
Winning trades:
9 of 15 - 46% accuracy
Points gained overall:
566 * $5 = $2830
Losing trades:
6; total 1127 points
(using Dow mini futures data, not Dow stock data) futures performance was slightly better…
Largest consecutive losing trades: 3@ 487 points; 8/1/2007-8/9/2007.
I know the XWave performance is significantly better over all, so I’ll keep working backward to compare these two approaches.
That’s all for now. Gotta go. If anyone wants a copy of the spreadsheet, just let me know.
Happy Trading,
Corey H.
DT, I really don't have words to say but thank you ! Your IMS readings have been one of a kind. All can I say to everyone out there trust the IMS to the "t" and create a comfortable level for your trading experience. The IMS can be deceiving were you feel that it might go against you. Just keep an your eye out and keep stop losses at a reasonable level so that you don't get stopped out. Once you've gained double or even triple pts get out get profits and wait for the next trade. But besides that sky's the limit. I've been following it on paper at the beginning and trading it live since last Nov. 2006.
DT I also wanted to ask you with clickcharts.com is the IMS indicator already implemented? is it the "trend index"? If not when will it be?
I'm sure many have asked you this before but can you just keep the dowtrader.net up and running. I just think its a excellent & useful indicator that I don't want to be without. And I'm sure I speak for most of us. Name your price DT that you might feel comfortable and I'm sure you'll be surprise at the outcome you'll receive if not all your members you currently have subscribed.
Success to all! This week will be interesting.
Cz
Hello DT, Can you comment on the connection, or maybe more accurately, the disconnection that can occur between the IMS reading and the actual Dow price? (This question is not graded, purely for "extra-credit"). For example, on Monday Aug 20, the IMS jumped in the morning from 16.7 to 32.2 on a small price jump in the Dow. Any thoughts on that type of scenario, technical or philosophical?
What brought this to the front of my mind was an example from the Dow on Friday after the Fed lowered the borrowing rate to 5 ¾% and the Dow’s reaction, as seen through the huge price jump of 233 pts, (not to mention the huge futures price fluctuation of about 400 pts in a 15 minute stretch.) Of particular interest was that the Fed was “pleased that the market responded favorably” to the rate cut. In other words, the Fed did not have specific knowledge of how the market would react, but certainly was pleased that there was a correspondence between the environment and the price’s reaction to the environment.
DT, would you agree that the IMS measures the strength of the market, but cannot predict corresponding price movement? Did that make sense? I think we’d all be interested to get your take on that, if you can do it without giving away any trade secrets… Your take on that may also answer Ron’s post on Aug 1. –In other words, if the Fed cannot predict price reaction, let’s not assume that we can either…
Thank you,
Corey H.
Hi fellow DT members,
Just wanted to point out some interresting divergence I have seen (and you too I'm sure).
My view of a swing high is that a candle has two candles either side where the high is lower than the candle in question. Swing low is the reverse.
Beaish Divergence - Price makes a Higher swing high than last swing HIGH and IMS makes a lower high than last swing high. Details are:
(mm/dd - sorry, I'm an Aussie)
09/07 - High = 13739
IMS = 88.9
19/07 - High = 14121
IMS = 74.4
Bullish divergence - Price makes a lower swing low than last swing LOW and IMS makes a higer low than last swing low. Details are:
01/08 - Low = 13041
IMS = 7.8
16/08 - Low = 12455
IMS = 16.7
It will be interesting to see how the current bullish divergnece pans out. The previuos bearish divergence was bang on but i suspect that the sub-prime issues may have inflated the signal somewhat.
So how do I use this information. Basically I use it as additional confirmation that the current trend is about to turn. If I'm long and see bearish divergence I close out my long position and wait for the new DT signal. Reverse applies for being short.
I hope this information is of benefit to the DT members.
Anyway, thanks DT, I love your IMS indicator. I do hope that you keep it private for members and that you do keep the dowtrader page live after Jan 08.
Cheers,
Bernie
You get my vote to keep DowTrader.net running, I like it
To Bernie and Corey
Thanks for your comments this helps
Keep it coming!
Important DT Bulletin
Hello Everyone - I just wanted to firstly thank all our DT members who have provided constructive feedback about the IMS/xWave, which continues to perform exceptionally well despite it's one drawback [waiting until the end of the day for a signal], which I hope to address here...
Up until now - as you know - we have published our 'Go Short' or 'Go Long' signals at the end-of-the-day. This, in itself has provided a respectable level of profitability for us. The drawback with this 'waiting' until the end of the day has always been the potential 'giving back' of some of our profits back to the market. This point has been hinted upon by some members who provide us with feedback.
An idea has been brewing in my mind for some time. Close observation of the hourly changes in the IMS hints towards a method through which we can enter our trades much earlier [ie., intraday] instead of waiting until the end of the day to get a GO signal. By further study of the 30 component-stocks which make up the Dow, together with 15 minute readings of the IMS, we can gain an insight into 'exhaustion' of the Dow. Exhaustion analysis aims to find the optimum moment [within a 15 minute time slot] when the Dow has become overstretched, ready for a reversal.
What this means for us, is that instead of waiting until the end of the day [3:30pm] to see if we should be changing our positions from long to short [or vice versa], IMS exhaustion analysis provides a tool through which we can reverse our positions earlier in the day, and [most importantly] not risk losing valuable points gained during the preceding trade.
An example will help: Assume the IMS has been rising from 30 all the way up to 85, and we have locked in a respectable 300+ points profit over several days. At this point, the signal in the evening still suggests to 'stay long', and we do. However, the following day, a few minutes or an hour into the market open, the IMS reads 77 points. It has therefore clearly reversed, and - for many members - this type of situation has raised a key question - "Should I exit & reverse now OR should I wait until the end of the day?"...
Now, rather than take this question for face value, an added component is added to our analysis. This is known as 'exhaustion' analysis, which provides a decisive measure of whether the market is indeed overstretched [on the upside or downside] and thus provides a more absolute confirmation [or trigger] to taking new 'Go Long' or 'Go Short' positions earlier in the day, as opposed to waiting until 3:30pm or 4:00pm.
In my most recent trades, I am now closing my positions during the day [mostly in the morning] when the IMS is above 65, starts to reverse, and my exhaustion analysis confirms a potential market reversal [in which case I move my position from long to short]. The same is true of new Short openings. It becomes clear that reversing my position immediately upon these intraday confirmations, instead of waiting until the end of the day has not only preserved many of the gains made during the preceding trades, but adds significantly to overall profitability.
So, it is time to move up a gear with the IMS. As it stands, we have is a great tool for measuring market strength. Now however, we have an added measure [exhaustion analysis], which effectively providing much better, earlier entry signals rather than waiting until the end of the day [and potentially losing valuable points]. In addition [in my own trading] I am applying a 2.5% intraday, FIXED [as opposed to trailing] stop loss. An intraday stop means exactly that, to exit a position if the market hits my stop 'intraday'.
Interestingly, backtesting the system with very simple rules, using 15 minute data [Dow, IMS, and Exhaustion Analysis], has proved beyond any doubt in my mind, that this is the way to move forward with the IMS - it allows us to take the maximum juice out of the market.
The rules are...
1. Go Long the Dow when the IMS is below 35 and starts moving up, confirmed intraday by exhaustion analysis.
2. Once Long, then 'Stay Long' until either a brand new 'Go Short' signal arrives, or the Dow hits the 2.5% stop at any time.
3. Go Short the Dow when the IMS is above 65 and starts moving down, confirmed intraday by exhaustion analysis.
4. Once Short, then 'Stay Short' until either a brand new 'Go Long' signal arrives, or the Dow hits the 2.5% stop at any time.
5. If a stop loss is hit at any time, then exit and do not trade until the next signal.
The results of this study are posted at the following web page:
www.dowtrader.net/intraday.htm
Over the coming weeks, I will be launching a 'Dow Intraday Alerts' service, based on these findings.
The service will be limited to a closed membership by invitation only, and include LIVE bulletins [GO Long/Short] as they happen intraday. Updates on this development will be posted here.
it is not clear wether or not the exhaustion figure has been applied to todays figures? do i go short now at 3.330 uk timr or wait till end of day as usuall? i would like to receive the alerts.
thanks
Richard Cree
Dear DT
I have being a member of the "Dow trader" since November 2006, and as I stated in my mail dated June 26th, I follow the XWAVE system religously, and I have to say that this sounds like a magnificent development onto the original IMS system. Therefore I hope to be one of the privilged few to be invited as a member of your new "Dow intraday alerts" system.
Regards
Shane F. In Ireland.
I would love to be on the list of invites if you would please.
If you are beta testing this with some others will it be available to the rest of us in the futre??
you know how it is---following the system makes us money but it sure would be nice to make more by not giving back waiting for the trade at the end of day.
Still a big fan of the system and hope to be able to keep the same signals and web page for the 2008 year. it is simple and very easy to follow.
If you allow the intra day notice to go out to PDA's it would be MONEY in the bank.
thanks again DT
CW
Georgia
Hi DT,
Many thanks for all the hard work that you have, and still are, putting into the IMS system. It’s much appreciated.
Your proposed intra day system looks very promising indeed.
May I suggest a way of reducing the losing points on the stopped out short trades.
I use this now with the current end of day system. I have just had a quick calculation and it will work well on your published intraday system.
Saving approximately 1000 losing points!
When in a short trade simply exit the trade when the end of day IMS is equal to, or greater than yesterdays end of day IMS. (no mater what the current actual value of IMS)
Possibly this could be improved even more with intraday IMS data?
Again many thanks for all your efforts.
Regards
Peter P
Hi again DT,
Just a couple of quick comments;
Will you be inviting all current members to the intraday system, if not how will you select?
Also, can you make the intraday web page viewable on mobile phones and/or email alerts?
Best regards
Peter P
hi DT,great system,look forward to intraday elerts.allso i use the 10ma,30sma and 60sma crossover for riversals on the 1 hour chart. .im in the uk and the first signal comes at 3pm uk time is this ok.whold like to see dowtrader going for ever.and please put me oon tour mailing list.all the best sammy.
ps what e-mail do we use to contact you
Hi there
On 27 Aug the IMS was at 94.4 and the following day it dropped to 84.4 resulting in a go short signal. On the 29 Aug the IMS has dropped to 70 but the signal has changed to go long. Is this because our 1% stop and reverse is triggered? When did the go long signal get posted?
By the way, what a great service! Kepp up the good work and thanks!
When will the new system start?, will it be published as well as the x wave? Will notification come via e-mail? As a member do i need to sign up for it? or is it automatic inclusion?
thanks
Richard Cree
Keep up the good work DT. You proposed new system looks great. Since this system is time critical, could you PLEASE arrange a broker to autotrade the system using the e-mini Dow. Thinkorswim would be my preference, and they already autotrade numerous other systems. From the comments left on your Blog, I believe you have many clients who live in different time zones who are not able to trade intraday. There are probably many others who don't watch their computers all day also. Autotrading would be a great step forward.
Thanks very much,
David (Aussie)
DT, this is a very exciting development. One question: You said the 2.5% is a fixed stop, not a trailing stop. So is it a fixed stop from the point of entry, or a fixed stop from the last EOD DOW value?
Let's say, we go long at 10,000, after 10 days the Dow closes at 11,000. Does the (Intraday) stop always stay at 9,750, or is it at 10,725 after those 10 days?
Thanks, Peter
DT This is an excellent idea !!Thank you so much for this attention. Do you place your stop 2.5 at your entry point or the opening price I hope you will implement the intrday signal soon
DT
When you give the intraday update(long or short) after the exhaustion,is that on the regular update? Also, have you had any intraday reversals(sometimes now it will open as eg. sell,but as the day goes on it may change back to a buy as the market reverses.I'm betting the exhaustion analysis takes care of that. Thank you! Howard
Thank you, DowTrader, I look forward to your new intra-day alerts service.
I posted about OpenTick's free live data a couple of weeks ago. Hope it proved useful to anyone who needed it.
best of trades to us all!
regards,
EH
The response to our intra day alerts service is nothing short of unprecedented - this is a GREAT BIG thank you to all our members, especially those who are working closely with us to create revolutions, as we move to the next level.
I will address some of the points made in the feedback/comments we have received [published above].
Firstly, Peter P - you really seem to have grasped the IMS down to a tee. I love your idea of managing the 'short' positions differently to the long positions, ie., exiting 'shorts' upon an IMS reversal instead of waiting to get hit by a stop. I have found in my own trading, false-rallies soon after opening a short position tend to travel deeper, often hitting the 2.5% stop on volatile dead-cat bounces on more [not all] trades than I would like - therefore a more conservative approach of exiting any short position on an IMS reversal is a good solution...
I have applied this rule into the IMS data, and the results [together with the exact rules for those who are unclear] are published at: www.dowtrader.net/intraday.htm
Regarding questions relating to the 2.5% stop, the stop is decided upon entry and is fixed. Example: A long signal occurs at 12600, we set a stop at 2.5% below this entry = 12285. This is fixed throughout the life of the long trade, and is an 'intraday' stop, meaning, if the Dow hits 12285 at any time [intraday], the position is closed. Hope this clears this up.
Finally, a quick note to let you know, the live alerts will be sent by email, within 5 minutes of a new DT intraday [exhaustion] signal - this has been decided to ensure time-sensitive alerts can be received on mobiles/PDA's as well as PC's. Emails will also be sent at the end of each day to keep up to date with IMS levels, commentary, and briefings.
Do not be concerned about the IMS fractionally fluctuating up and down during reversal days - this is why we developed the 'exhaustion' analysis tool. This ensures an intraday GO signal is final irrespective of whether the IMS then ticks up/down for the rest of the day. The reversal/signal [and stop loss level for long trades] holds true. DT
DT,
Looks like a tremendous step up in the IMS method. Results really could not be better. I am looking forward to seeing how the email notification will work. Best of luck to all.
rlsm in Texas
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